We had visited the wonderful Swethagon pagoda on the morning of the day the monks protested in Yangon. In the afternoon, shops in Scott market were closing because 2000 monks were passing on a peaceful march to Swethagon for a demonstration against the junta’s earlier beating up monks elsewhere who had protested increase in fuel prices. There was no crackdown by the junta for five days though the protest marches continued in other towns as well.
The 45 year old regime is highly repressive. There are no foreign newspapers except for a Singapore paper, released a week late, after scrutiny. The local press is entirely government controlled. The only television news channel in the hotel is CNN apart from local propaganda channels. Internet is heavily censored where available. Cell phones are restricted and controlled. A call to India costs $5 a minute. All international calls are monitored. Even common people are afraid to express themselves freely.
I was in Yangon, Mandalay, and Bagan. They have excellent roads and brand new airport terminals, built by the Chinese. The hotels are mostly new. Local airlines run like clockwork and appear safe. American sanctions prevent travellers’ cheques and credit cards from being used, but the dollar is freely accepted as currency. There were no visible touts to exchange foreign currency at a premium.
Myanmar is resource rich and China has the largest share of them, reciprocating with considerable infrastructure investment and international political support. Other investors in oil and gas are French companies. An American company is also active. India is trying to get a share. Thailand is a key investor and trader. American sanctions have not prevented China, France, and the ASEAN countries, especially Thailand and some American companies from investing in Myanmar. These investors doubtless feed the Generals.
As in Pakistan, the Army controls all government departments. The Generals are said to be wealthy and live well. Sanctions have hurt the general population very badly. Tourism is a fraction of what it could be. There is little manufacturing for domestic markets or for export. Agriculture is almost the universal occupation.
There is massive poverty and unemployment. Tourism, some crafts, exports of minerals with resource exploitation by foreign companies, and agriculture, provide some employment. Educated unemployment is very high and they take jobs as tour guides, hotel staff and shop assistants. They have little choice.
China has immense clout in Myanmar. Recently the junta reversed a commitment to India on gas, and passed it to China. China has made some routine noises about peaceful resolution to internal disputes, but is unlikely to do anything concrete. ASEAN admitted Myanmar as member ostensibly to moderate the regime. The developed world and especially the US have not applied pressure on China or ASEAN to pressure Myanmar.
Now the UK and US want India as a large neighbour and democracy, to pressure the junta and relax its regime act. Former Defence Minister George Fernandes and former Prime Minister I K Gujral want India to intervene. The Communist parties have been silent, perhaps because it would be against Chinese interests.
For a few years India kept a distance from the junta, because former President K R Narayanan did not want India to “encourage” the military regime since Su Kyi was the elected leader. Militants in the North East safely crossed the border for refuge in Myanmar. The NDA government had to hold back negotiations with the Generals to deny refuge to militants in the North East, and for oil and gas. Meanwhile the Chinese became well-ensconced in Myanmar. The BJP in Opposition is going back on its policy when in power, of making friends with the Generals.
Developed countries have never had moral compunctions in promoting their self-interests with other repressive regimes. American oil companies were negotiating with the Taliban in Afghanistan, a CIA creation, for building a pipeline from Central Asia across Afghanistan with the support of the American government, until 9/11 happened.
India must also not sacrifice its self-interest. It should not propagate an unsuited democracy to Myanmar.
Myanmar has always been under authoritarian rule (Kings, British, Japanese, and now the Generals) except briefly under Aung San after the British left. After his assassination, Burma was in tribal conflicts till the Generals took over ten years later. The world must seek to moderate the Generals, not impose an unfamiliar democracy on Myanmar.
Sanctions invariably hurt the poor, not a dictatorship, whether Iraq, North Korea or Myanmar. External support as from China, ASEAN and others continues, perpetuates the junta. Instead of sanctions, humanitarian aid should pour into Myanmar to relieve the suffering population. Similarly should investment that can generate employment. Prosperity and jobs change repressive regimes. This has happened in South Korea and Latin America and will in Myanmar.
