In both Myanmar and Pakistan the military rulers are in trouble. But they are heading in opposite directions. That is because, while Pakistan understands why Asia is rising, Myanmar does not. Asia is rising because Asian countries are increasingly opening their doors to modernity.

Starting with Japan, this modernising wave has swept through the four “Asian Tigers” (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore), some Asean countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam), and then to China and India. Now, it is moving into Pakistan and west Asia.

Exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif sought to return, but was promptly sent back into exile. The world expected a political eruption. Instead, the country carried on calmly.

Pakistan did not erupt because Pakistan’s elite is focused on modernisation. Led by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, who was formerly with Citibank, the country has carried out dramatic structural reforms, matching best practices in leading emerging-market economies. This explains high economic growth rates. But this opening to modernity extends beyond economics and finance. Yes, thousands of madrasas remain open and Islamic fundamentalism is strong. But this has not completely changed the texture of Pakistan’s society.

One sight at LUMS, a leading private university in Lahore, heartened me: how women were dressed. When I visited Malaysian campuses as a young man in the 1960s, few Malay Muslim women wore the hijab. Today, on the same campuses, almost all do. By contrast, at LUMS; only about five per cent of female students wore the hijab, a remarkable expression of social freedom.

There has also been an explosion of free media in Pakistan. An astonishing number of Pakistani TV stations openly discuss the activities of Sharif and the other exiled former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. Indeed, many elements of an open society are in place, including an independent judiciary.

I met many retired army generals occupying key posts. Fortunately, they seemed to have a temperament closer to Colin Powell’s than to either Than Shwe or Maung Aye, the two closed military minds that have cut off Myanmar from the world. America’s decision to engage, rather than isolate, Pakistan has also helped.

Myanmar’s generals deserve to be condemned for their brutal crackdown on civilian protestors and Buddhist monks. The western world will rush to demand more sanctions and more isolation. But to what avail? Myanmar has effectively isolated itself for more than 40 years. What can even more isolation achieve?

A courageous western leader might confront Myanmar’s leaders with a threat that would really frighten them: deeper engagement. Myanmar’s generals genuinely believe that they are protecting the country’s “purity” by shutting out the world.

I was in Pakistan as a state guest. I saw the strong desire to join today’s rising Asia. If a similar impulse could be implanted into Myanmar, both its people and the world would benefit.
Guardian