The Chinese Defence Minister, Cao Gangchuan, has just concluded a five-day visit to Japan, the first in almost a decade. While bilateral ties between China and Japan had plummeted to an all-time low in 2001, after the then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made repeated visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, ties began improving after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took over and visited Beijing in October 2006. Cao’s visit appears to be an effort on the part of the Chinese to improve relations with Japan.
During the visit, the two sides agreed to establish a hotline between their defence forces as also for reciprocal port calls by warships of both sides, with a Chinese vessel making the first port call in November 2007. Cao also invited Japan to participate as an observer in a military exercise scheduled for September in China.
Apprehending the Japanese concerns on China’s military modernisation, Cao stated that the rise in Chinese defence spending was a result of economic development, in addition to the hike in salaries and uniforms and modernisation of equipment in line with international trends. This may not have assuaged all concerns: the Japanese minister stated that Cao’s explanations were “abstract and not necessarily specific.”
The provocation
What has prompted the Chinese to seek improved relations with Japan after so many years? The recent quadrilateral meeting between India, US, Japan and Australia has clearly rattled the Chinese. Earlier in the year, the official Chinese newspaper, People’s Daily, commented critically on the “humanitarian” exercises held among the Indian, Japanese and the US navies, stating that this, in all probability, could be the beginning of an emerging balance of power in Asia. Though China’s fears may not be totally unfounded, it has only its own lack of transparency to blame for the increasing security concern in the region about Beijing’s intentions and goals.
Japan’s participation in a US-led ballistic missile shield in the region is certainly a cause for worry to Beijing. Japan has already taken part in a naval exercise with India, Singapore, Australia and the US in the Bay of Bengal this month, and is set to hold its first-ever trilateral summit with Canberra and Washington in September. In addition, the recent visit of Japanese Prime Minister Abe to India, where he renewed call for a “broader Asia” partnership of democracies that would include India, US and Australia – but leave out China, must also be worrying the Chinese. Further, Japan collaboration with India in the setting up of the 3,000 MW Lohit hydroelectric project in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as its own, has probably not gone down too well in Beijing.
Role of military
Cao’s visit comes against the backdrop of serious Japanese concerns about Chinese military build up. A recent Japanese White Paper stated that China’s military expansion plans, particularly the strengthening of the navy and air force, goes well beyond its immediate boundaries. The Chinese interest in procuring an aircraft carrier is a case in point. Further, the lack of transparency regarding Chinese defence budget and its military modernisation programmes are factors that would drive Japan’s defence posture in the coming years. China’s ASAT has also made Japan wary of Beijing's intentions.
There are also worries about the possibility that the Chinese political leadership might not fully be in control of its military. It was reported that the Chinese foreign ministry was not even aware of the ASAT test. China has been attempting very hard to convince the region and the world that its rise would be peaceful. If China wants to “rise” peacefully, it will have to do more to convince the region that it is not a threat. Given that China needs to create a positive international atmosphere favouring Beijing, Cao has his task cut out.
(The writer is Senior Research Fellow, with Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.)