Nepal is on the verge of a political crisis again. The government is set to fall with the Maoists withdrawing support.. The Maoists had given the government time until Monday to meet their demands, including abolition of the monarchy ahead of general elections in November and the introduction of an electoral system based on proportional representation. Under the peace deal reached last year, it was agreed that the decision to declare Nepal a republic would be taken by a democratically elected constitutional body. Over the past year, the interim government has taken several steps to strip the monarchy of its powers. But it was unwilling to end the monarchy by issuing a parliamentary proclamation as demanded by the Maoists. The Maoists claim that they are anxious to get rid of the monarchy as the King is planning to sabotage the polls. This might be true. But their demand is untenable as changes in the constitution cannot be brought about by arbitrary action but has to come through legal procedures.

It is believed that the Maoists’ decision to pull out of the government has been prompted by their nervousness to face the electorate. It appears that they are unlikely to do well in the upcoming election, even in their stronghold in the Terai region, where new parties have sprung up. The Maoists have ruled out returning to armed conflict but it does seem that it is only a matter of time before they come up with some excuse to return to violence. It is a pity that the Maoists have failed to make the transformation to democratic politics.

With the political parties and the Maoists signing a peace deal in November last year, it did seem that the situation in Nepal was stabilising. That has now changed and India will have to deal with the fallout of another of its neighbours being gripped by crisis. India is in favour of elections being held as scheduled. A democratic Nepal is no doubt in the interests of the Nepalese people. However, statements like the one made by India’s ambassador in Nepal that “no excuse can be given for not holding the elections, except perhaps by an act of God” have been interpreted by commentators there as similar to the kind of orders the King would issue. India’s concerns in ensuring stability in Nepal are understandable but high-handed remarks are only likely to undermine its interests there.