Many may say that there was nothing surprising about the rupee hitting a nine-year high of Rs 39.875 against the dollar on Thursday and that it was just a breach of the psychological barrier. But, RBI has sent a clear message across to exporters as well as IT majors that it is time they got used to a stronger rupee and concentrated more on productivity gains to compensate for the currency appreciation, rather than complaining about it. The IT sector's stand has of late been that it can work around the stronger rupee as long as it is gradual. But exporters continue to whine over the impact of a weakening dollar on its earnings in the hope of getting some palliatives from the government, if not an outright intervention from the central bank. With a sympathetic commerce minister Kamal Nath on their side, exporters are bound to clamour for relief. It is in this context that RBI is well advised not to make any major intervention which will not be in the interests of the overall economy.
Looking from the Government's stand point, a strong rupee is indeed good news for oil PSUs, given that they face escalation in the international crude prices, now at over $ 80 per barrel, and Petroleum Minister Murli Deora is in no mood to oblige a hike in the prices domestically with general elections round the corner. Ditto for buyers of gold and out-bound tourists, who can now do some extra-shopping. But the development is not so good for in-bound tourists, who will have to pay through their nose every time they swipe an international credit card. So is the case with inward remittances.
The US Federal Reserve's 50 basis points hike in their bench mark rates on Tuesday has already impacted Indian domestic bourses and in the coming weeks, one may expect FIIs to find India an even more exciting place to invest in, as their dollar returns will keep increasing despite steady rupee returns.The rupee has risen rapidly over the past year, gaining more than 13.5 per cent against the dollar. Both the government and RBI have to convince exporters and others that they better accept the hard reality – that the market will be allowed to find its own level in the coming days.