A Presidential election will take place in Pakistan on October 6 and nomination papers of candidates would be accepted and examined on September 27 and 29. Musharraf has assured the apex court and the people that he would resign before he takes the oath of office as the President, “if elected”. This has set off a political storm with opposition threatening to break up the electoral college by resigning from the assemblies.

But the day Musharraf’s nomination papers are to be filed, lawyers may gherao the CEC offices. Once his papers are accepted, various opposition parties are scheduled to resign from the various assemblies. Meanwhile Supreme Court is adjudicating whether Musharraf can be both a COAS (Chief of Army Staff) and President simultaneously and whether he can be an eligible candidate for the office of President. Musharraf is doing much that is going to be challenged in the top court, including whether he qualifies to contest while remaining COAS and so forth. Actually experts see no way out for him, as his options are rapidly shrinking.

His Ministers are singing in the dark. They say that if pushed to a corner, Musharraf might dissolve the assemblies or might impose a State of Emergency or even impose a Martial Law, being the Army Chief. Hardly anyone takes these threats seriously. Musharraf’s retreat from various positions so far amounts to a route.

No one thinks that he can credibly impose any Emergency, let alone a Martial Law. Because it is by no means certain that the Army will help bail out Musharraf; the precedent of Yahya Khan refusing to obey Field Marshal Ayub Khan in 1969 to impose selective Martial Law on various cities is on record; the latter demanded Ayub’s ouster – and got it. The Pakistan Army is not in the business of bailing out discredited leaders.

Another big factor in Pakistan politics, apart from the Army, is US administration. So far no non-democratic government has come to office without the US concurring or having a role in it. The Americans, in their present mood, can scarcely approve of any Martial Law or another overt military takeover. They would want a civilian patch up somehow and elections.

As for the three mainstream opposition parties are concerned, one, PML (Nawaz), is implacably hostile to Musharraf and will find it hard to support another military regime. The second, Benazir’s PPP  has been taken for a ride by Musharraf’s two year long negotiations with her and finally all her demands have been postponed till necessary. The PPP can only be bitter, though there may still be residual US support for her to make an entry into corridors of power if she does well in the upcoming general elections.

The third is Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). It had been betrayed by Musharraf once and though it is perhaps still ready for a deal, if one is available. But also it is wary. The ruling King’s party does not matter. It can scarcely hold together without Musharraf in power and stands little chance of success in a free election.

The world has been focusing on the War against Terror in Afghanistan and American efforts to induce, cajole or coerce Pakistan into playing a more resolute role in it. That is Bush Administration's wish, though it is being moderated by readiness among American intellectuals to arrange a final deal between Karzai and Taliban that may take Pakistan off the hook.

But a bigger national interest of America, is the nukes. The Americans are mighty afraid of the Talibanisation of Federal Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the rest of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) with intimations of this Islamisation zeal getting a welcome in Punjab also. Their nightmare is either Pakistan being ruled by al-Qaeda led Taliban, whether by winning electorally or through its ingress inside Pakistan’s security establishment.

They do not accept that Pakistan’s Command and Control System is really as good as Pakistan claims. In any case, the country is now vulnerable to Islamic extremists in a radical sort of way and the nukes can fall into the hands of the extremists. America will not let that happen.

The emerging situation is one of deadlock. Musharraf’s acceptance as President, even if declared by the CEC, may not satisfy the country; indeed the national election later may not pass muster in the rest of the world. The Supreme Court has been pitchforked into a position by recent events into a position where it is now compelled by the pressure of public opinion and a new interpretation of the Constitution that it should prevent Musharraf from executing his political agenda. What happens then?

The only Plan B appears to be guesswork by observers like I A Rahman: the Americans may, in all probability, lean on Pakistan Army generals to provide full support to a caretaker government like that of Bangladesh that will govern the country until it can actually transit into democracy.