Street demonstrations alone are unlikely to bring down Myanmar’s ruthless military junta. They have been tried before, notably in 1988, when about 3,000 civilians reportedly died in the resulting crackdown. Nor will any amount of huffing and puffing by Gordon Brown and other western leaders have much impact, especially if it is unsupported by concrete, punitive measures.

Similarly, irrelevant for all practical purposes is the Association of South-East Nations (Asean), that has repeatedly failed to take firm action on Myanmar despite myriad embarrassments over its behaviour. Asean’s calls for democratic reforms and the release of political prisoners, reiterated by Indonesia and the Philippines this month, are treated with ill-concealed contempt in Yangon. And after last year’s coup, Myanmar’s southern neighbour, Thailand, has its own military junta problem.

Experts say, it is China and India, who hold the key to Myanmar’s future. Only Beijing and Delhi have sufficient political and economic clout to twist the junta’s arm. And only if they call time and pull the rug are the generals likely to topple. Both China and India are pursuing significant investment and oil and gas projects in Myanmar and are leading suppliers of arms, bypassing an EU embargo. “China sees Myanmar as an unstable tinpot regime causing growing cross-border narcotics and HIV/AIDS problems for it when it has more important things to do,” said Mark Farmaner of the pro-reform Myanmar Campaign UK.

For its part, India, competing with China for influence, is putting its economic interests and concerns about cross-border insurgents active in northeast India ahead of human rights and democracy, said Zoya Phan in a Myanmar Campaign report.

While they have remained largely silent so far, neither China nor India are immune to international opinion, as Beijing’s recent policy shifts on Sudan and Zimbabwe indicate. And political and diplomatic support for the Burmese pro-democracy movement, misleadingly dubbed the “saffron revolution”, has been building rapidly in recent weeks.

Following a critical report on Myanmar in July by the House of Commons International Development Committee, Britain is expected to increase bilateral humanitarian aid. Additional pressure is being exerted by the US, the European parliament, and via the UN general assembly. The French president Nicolas Sarkozy, fresh from his triumphs in Libya, has also got in on the act with a planned meeting this week with Maynmar’s government-in-exile.

Despite past failures, it may be that this growing external firestorm will help tip the internal balance in the demonstrators’ favour. Inside Myanmar, what looks different this time around is the broad-based alliance that is emerging between the 1988 generation opposition loyal to the iconic Aung San Suu Kyi, influential Buddhist leaders and monks, students, government workers, media celebrities, and ordinary civilians.

What looks frighteningly familiar are the generals' reported preparations to infiltrate and crush the demonstrations before they turn into a full-fledged national uprising. That begs a practical question of Mr Brown and other concerned leaders: if mass murder begins in Myanmar, what will “we” do?

Guardian