A rivetting, if somewhat bizarre, political drama is  unfolding in Karnataka.

The producer, director, script-writer and dialogue-writer of the play is Janata Dal(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda, of course. He knows that the build up to the most eagerly awaited drama has already ensured that it is a sell out and the play has to go on stage in a few days’ time. The main actors are thoroughly confused and the rehearsals have gone awry, as the script is being rewritten every day, sometimes, every minute.

The play has aroused a lot of curiosity among the public as the grapevine from the rehearsals speaks of a tense atmosphere as the actors are being asked to switch roles, given different situations and different lines, with nothing being certain. Some say that the director, who is hoping to blaze a new trail in the avant garde genre of drama, is still experimenting a lot and not sure how it should all end. But, he seems to be thoroughly enjoying himself.

Take for instance, Deve Gowda’s visit to Delhi on Wednesday to meet the national leaders of the BJP and discuss the nitty-gritty of the transfer of power. He was scheduled to meet Rajnath Singh, L K Advani and A B Vajpayee (depending on the latter’s health condition) on Thursday. He was prepared to do some tough talking and indulge in some tough negotiations.

But, state BJP minister B Sriramulu’s late night fracas with the police at Bellary and his allegation that Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy conspired to kill him, made  Deve Gowda change his plans.

Gowda cancelled his meetings with the senior BJP leaders, returned to Bangalore and on Thursday morning convened a hurried press conference to announce that there would be no transfer of power until “the BJP creates a congenial atmosphere to do so.” Gowda was actually aware of the Sriramulu episode before he enplaned for Delhi (it happened late on Tuesday night), but he still touched the national capital and returned the same evening for “dramatic effect.” 

Nobody knows how many such twists and turns will be added over the next five days. One episode sure to happen towards “intermission” is Kumaraswamy’s resignation as chief minister. At one stage, Gowda wasn’t sure of its “boxoffice” value and feared that by doing such a foolhardy thing, his favourite son might get axed from the drama before its conclusion. Kumaraswamy’s insistence on “keeping his word” has paid off, but the director has firmly told him that he will decide when to include this “scene.”

The grapevine from Padmanabhanagar (where Gowda lives) says that it can happen any day between September 30 and October 3. The final decision will, of course, be made by the astrologers. The BJP is well aware that if Kumaraswamy submits the resignation of his government without a deal between JD(S) and BJP in place, the dream of having its first chief minister, could get complicated.

Governor Rameshwar Thakur –  a seasoned Congress leader – could accept Kumaraswamy’s resignation and recommend President’s rule within 24 hours citing “political vacuum.” Even if Kumaraswamy is allowed to continue in a care-taker capacity for a couple days, the end result could be a spell of President’s rule and early elections to the Assembly, if BJP continues to dither.

Thus, Gowda is banking on BJP’s nervousness over the next few days to drive a hard bargain for transfer of power. He is not ready to offer “lead role” to Yediyurappa and may suggest Jagdish Shettar’s name instead. If BJP insists on Yediyurappa as its CM candidate, it will have to be prepared to pay a price.

The 20-month power sharing deal was built on the assumption that the two parties would exchange portfolios of ministers at the time of change of baton. But, now it will go for a toss and Gowda is likely to insist on important portfolios like finance, home, PWD, energy, BDA, infrastructure, transport and water resources for his party.

Earlier, it was thought that Gowda’s elder son H D Revanna would be anointed as the deputy chief minister once the BJP took over. But, the think tank in the Gowda family believes that Revanna would be no match to Yediyurappa and the JD(S) would rapidly lose whatever political gains it had made in the last 20 months.

The latest thinking is that Kumaraswamy would be able to retain his “popularity” and remain in public gaze if he is made deputy chief minister with some important ministries under his belt. He is seen as the future of the party and the family does not want to fritter away the gains made so far and hand over a clear advantage to the BJP.

The BJP will have to swallow a lot of pride for it to accept Gowda’s terms and conditions and ironically, the new government will still be under Gowda’s thumb. The party has seen what Gowda did to Dharam Singh and how he pulled the rug when he found it convenient.

The standoff between the UPA and the Left parties over the Indo-US nuclear deal and the Ramar Sethu issue in Tamil Nadu have brought about dramatic changes in the national political scene over the last couple of months.

The national leadership of the BJP will surely take on board the possibility of Lok Sabha elections in the near future, before deciding on how to react to Gowda’s drama in Karnataka.