Pakistani extremists have sent out a powerful signal yet again that they are within striking distance of the country’s seat of power. Two suicide attacks were carried out on Wednesday within a mile of the military headquarters in Rawalpindi. About 24 people were killed and over 60 others injured. Most of the victims are believed to be officials of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency. Rawalpindi is a tightly guarded garrison city. Yet, militants have been able to break through this supposedly tight security cordon on more than one occasion. In 2003, for instance, President Pervez Musharraf escaped two assassination attempts in Rawalpindi and in July this year, a suicide bomber blew himself up at the venue of a political rally in Islamabad. The security situation in Pakistan has dipped precipitously over the past few months. The continuing fierce resistance being put up by al-Qaeda and other extremist groups in Waziristan has underscored the virtual absence of Islamabad’s writ in these tribal areas.  But the situation in the cities is only marginally different. The Lal Masjid crisis in Islamabad highlighted the government’s rather tenuous hold over neighbourhoods in the capital city as well.

There is concern that President Musharraf will use the twin suicide attacks in Rawalpindi to declare emergency rule in Pakistan. With his credibility at an all-time low following the judicial crisis and his grip over power slipping under pressure from the political parties, Musharraf is loathe to face Presidential elections due in November. He would prefer to avoid the the general elections too - due early next year –given the fact that his political bete noires – Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto – are preparing to return to the country and are expected to oust the ruling party. Emergency rule might enable Presdient Musharraf to extend his term and put off general elections but this is bound to backfire. It is unlikely to get the support even of the military at this point.

President Musharraf will be able to wage a more effective campaign against extremism and terrorism only with the support of the democratic forces in his country. His current strategy of seeking to co-opt political parties or keep them out of the electoral fray might serve to undermine his political opposition in the short run but it will only deepen the multiple crises he confronts in the medium-term. Allowing democracy to work is his best bet.