Ships, aircraft and submarines from four countries began week long war games in the Bay of Bengal on September 4. It is the first flexing of muscles by the newly formed “Quadrilateral Initiative”, which brings together the United States, Japan, India and Australia. Singapore also has a small presence in the exercises.
Many analysts see the manoeuvres as efforts by a democratic coalition to “contain” rising Chinese power. Although the participants deny this, Beijing seems to be increasingly worried.
Chinese reactions
When the four powers set up the initiative (informally named the Quad) in Manila last May, a deeply concerned Beijing sent formal protests to the four governments. Quad members reassured China that their “strategic partnership” was only aimed at maintaining regional security, and was not targeting any particular power.
Later, Chinese President Hu Jintao sought clarification from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the G8 summit in Germany. Although he received reiterations of peace and friendship, Chinese commentary suggests Beijing was not convinced.
Dubbed Malabar 07-02, these are the biggest joint manoeuvres Indian warships have participated in. They were preceded by extensive discussions in Delhi. In July, Brendan Nelson, Australia’s Defence Minister, set out the policy framework of defence collaboration.
A month later, Admiral Russell Shalders, commander of the Australian navy, visited India – to work out the mechanics of collaboration and the details of the exercises.
Just days later, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Delhi, offering substantial economic and commercial assistance if India agreed to anchor “an Asian arc of freedom” stretching across the Indian and Pacific Oceans and providing a democratic bulwark – presumably against non-democratic powers.
As Mr Abe prepared to leave, his Defence Minister, Yoriko Koike, and the Commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Timothy Keating, arrived in Delhi, to finalise details of defence co-operation and Malabar 07-02.
This flurry of senior-level exchanges and the size and complexity of the manoeuvres add weight to the arguments of those who say that the Quad is rapidly gelling into a defence coalition. Two US aircraft carriers and one from India, as well as 11 other US ships will join more than a dozen vessels from India, Australia and Singapore to test out how well they can work together against common threats.
Although Quad members insist China has nothing to fear, a similar exercise (Malabar 07-01) involving United States, Indian and Japanese warships churned the waters of the South China Sea in April.
Bilateral war games are not new for Quad members, but there seems recently to have been a new momentum. Defence papers issued by all four governments have described China as a potential threat, and that combined with the launch of the Quad suggest a pattern of alliance-building activities that China cannot ignore. Perhaps as a sign of things to come, 1,600 Chinese troops travelled to Russia's Ural mountains to join several thousand mostly Russian troops in “Peace Mission 2007” manoeuvres in August.
A war wind
These ended as President Vladimir Putin hosted Hu and the presidents of four other Shanghai Co-operation Organisation countries (after their annual summit in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek) at the closing ceremony.
Mr. Putin then announced the resumption of long-range bomber sorties towards NATO airspace, which had been suspended after the Soviet collapse.The Cold War may not be back, but with trade and security tensions rising between the United States, China and Russia, a chill wind seems to be blowing as Asia redesigns its strategic alignments.
BBC
