The military ruler cannot officially be declared the winner until the Supreme Court has ruled later this month on challenges to the vote. The judges sit again on October 17, and Musharraf has several avenues by which he can try to remove final objections to Saturday’s one-sided ballot.

Should the court rule against him, it will likely plunge the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic nation into chaos. Yet if Musharraf is proclaimed the victor, Pakistan’s future remains on a knife edge, with general elections scheduled by January 15, 2008.

“Musharraf has won his expected victory but it certainly does not reduce the political uncertainty in the country,” says political analyst Nasim Zehra, a commentator for the respected daily The News.

The first of the legal challenges against the vote — that he was ineligible to stand as army chief — he can get around by quitting the position as promised by November 15, the end of his current term, his aides say.

The second is more tricky: a legal bar on government servants, including soldiers, from standing for political office within two years of quitting their jobs. Finally the appeals argue that the presidential vote should have been carried out by a new parliament after the general election. The solution to this, officials say, is to seek a vote of confidence from the new assemblies.

Impending crisis
“It would be a major surprise if the Supreme Court does not endorse his win. If the Supreme Court does not, there will be a very big crisis in the country,” said Hasan Askari, the former head of political science at Punjab University.

A source close to the presidency said Musharraf would likely introduce “surgical martial law” — presumably targeting certain institutions in a bid to minimise chaos — if the court rules against him.

But if he is declared winner of the presidential poll, Musharraf must quickly shore up his political position — meaning that all eyes are on Bhutto’s return from exile on October 18, the day after the court reconvenes.

Taliban threat to bhutto
London, PTI: Taliban militants in Pakistan have vowed to launch suicide attacks against former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto when she returns to the country after eight years of self-imposed exile.

Bhutto was allowed to return to Pakistan after President Pervez Musharraf on October 5 signed an amnesty deal with the PPP chief, quashing corruption charges against her.

Baitullah Mehsud, a Pakistani Taliban leader linked to al-Qaeda, declared that suicide bombers would launch attacks on the former premier as soon as she returned, The Sunday Telegraph reported. The report quoted Farahatullah Babar, a spokesman of Bhutto’s party as saying “the danger to her life is always there if she returns but we have decided that she will return at any cost.”

Bhutto, currently in Dubai, is scheduled to leave for Pakistan on October 17 and reach Karachi the next day.