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| Monsoon covers entire country |
| Kalyan Ray: New Delhi:DH News Service |
But rainfall continues to be deficient
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Even though the monsoon covered the whole of India on Friday — 12 days in advance of its schedule — the country still has a deficit monsoon with 46 per cent shortage from its regular quota.
Ideally, the country should get 171.2 mm of rain between June 1 and July 1. But it received only 92.6 mm, a shortfall of 46 per cent.
The situation, however, improved slightly in the last week of June. The week which ended on July 1 witnessed 39.6 mm of rain instead of its regular share of 56 mm. This translates to 29 per cent shortfall.
The forecast for the coming week is alarming. “Subdued rainfall activity is likely over northwest and interior peninsular India during the first half and scattered in the later half of the week,” said a Met official.
Intensity of rainfall activity over central India, interior Maharashtra and Gujarat will increase from July 7. “Figures and maps can be deceptive at this point. Since Wednesday, west coast and interior peninsula are receiving good rainfall. The monsoon is picking up,” Ajit Tyagi, director general of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) told Deccan Herald.
The arrival of the monsoon at a particular place means appearance of a specific wind pattern, which may or may not trigger monsoon rain.
While the advent of monsoon winds is typically accompanied by the formation of low pressure zones over the Bay of Bengal and other triggering events, this time, unfortunately, the monsoon winds are not carrying enough moisture.
Moreover, the Arabian Sea arm and the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon have to work in tandem for a good monsoon. “The Bay arm is not active this time even though there is a monsoon trough,” Tyagi said.
The IMD chief expects the formation of another low pressure zone over Bay of Bengal by July 6-7, which, if properly developed, can bring monsoon rains to north and northwest India. But, another IMD scientist pushes the time limit further. “We are expecting a low pressure zone in the Bay before July 15,” he said.
Positive sign
Heavy rain in the west coast in the last 24 hours has come as a positive sign. “There is good improvement last week and we are expecting rains in west coast, peninsula and parts of central India,” the scientist said.
Widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy rainfalls at a few places is likely along the west coast, eastern India and northeastern states.
North and northwest India, however, will continue to have clear sky with isolated rain and thunder shower.
South-interior and coastal Karnataka received deficient rainfall in this season. The shortfall is 36 and 43 per cent rainfall. North-interior Karnataka has received almost its full quota so far.
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