Delayed response

Returning to Iraq

Finally after seven long years, the Indian government has decided that time has come to make its presence felt in Iraq by naming an envoy to the country. The previous ambassador to Iraq was withdrawn in 2004 when the security situation in the country was spiralling out of control.

And even as the situation stabilised in Iraq with largely peaceful elections last year and the US decision to withdraw its forces completely by the end of this year, New Delhi took its time to come to terms with the rapidly changing ground realities. After all, when it comes to West Asia, inaction is the preferred mode of action of the Indian foreign policy establishment.

India and Iraq have enjoyed longstanding political and cultural ties rooted in millennia old civilisations. Iraq had emerged as one of India’s closest allies in West Asia by the 1970s. Not surprisingly, New Delhi not only opposed the use of force against Iraq in 1991 but also vehemently denounced the imposition of UN sanctions on Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Saddam reciprocated by strongly backing India on the issue of Kashmir and on the 1998 nuclear tests. But Iraq’s global isolation meant that India’s economic ties with Iraq suffered significantly even though India tried to use the Oil-for-Food programme to expand trade with Iraq.

By the time of the Second Gulf War, India’s foreign policy priorities had changed dramatically. Though it publically opposed the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, New Delhi came very close to sending troops to post-war Iraq in support of the UN Security Council’s resolution to help maintain security in the country. Though lack of domestic consensus prevented that from happening, India has contributed generously towards the reconstruction and development efforts in Iraq.

India has also been training the Iraqi government officials under the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme and the Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) being the largest importer of crude oil from Iraq. Iraq is the third largest supplier of crude to India after Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Despite this, there has been no larger strategic restructuring of Indian foreign policy towards Iraq. India’s response to the hanging of Saddam Hussein underscored the continuing salience of domestic political imperatives in shaping Indian foreign policy. When the death sentence against Saddam Hussein was announced India denounced it as ‘victor’s justice’ and when he was hanged, India declared it an ‘unfortunate event.’

Both these reactions were aimed at assuaging the Indian Muslim community that has been agitated over the Indian government’s perceived dalliance with the US. Beyond that there was no attempt by India to engage the new political dispensation in Baghdad. This, despite the fact, that the Iraqi government had invited India to step in and help in Iraq’s reconstruction with its technology and management expertise.

Great opportunity

Iraq is slated to be world’s biggest oil supplier by 2015 and Indian companies have been looking forward to operating there. Iraqi businesses are also exploring opportunities for joint ventures with their Indian counterparts in the field of cement, petrochemicals, hotels, oil and gas upstream and downstream projects. But the lackadaisical attitude of the Indian government has prevented a deepening of India-Iraq economic engagement.

Compare this with China’s growing profile in Iraq. In the past three years, Chinese companies have walked away with stakes in three of the 11 contracts the Iraqi oil ministry has signed in its bid to increase crude output by about 450 per cent over the next seven years. China has also renegotiated a $3 billion deal that dates to when Saddam Hussein was in power.

China has agreed to cancel 80 per cent of the $8.5-billion debt it is owed by Iraq even as the two countries have entered into trade deals valued at $3.8 billion over the last two years. In response to China’s growing demand for oil, the Iraqi government decided to boost Iraq’s crude shipments to China from about 1,44,000 barrels per day to 3,00,000 in 2010.

Since the 2003 war to topple Saddam Hussein, Chinese oil companies have been among the most eager to help develop Iraq’s oil reserves with the state-owned Chinese oil firm China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) clinching some of the biggest deals in the Iraqi oil sector.

It has secured a second deal to help to develop one of Iraq’s largest oilfields — the 4.1 billion-barrel Halfaya field in southern Iraq as well as the rights to develop Rumaila, Iraq’s largest oilfield, alongside BP. It is also helping to restore production at al-Ahdab field. Sinopec, another Chinese oil group, has a strong position in northern Iraq, after its $7.9 billion acquisition of the London-listed Addax Petroleum, which has been exploring for oil in the autonomous Kurdish region.

Not surprisingly, BP and its partner CNPC will be the first companies to be paid back by the Iraqi government for developing Iraq’s supergiant Rumaila oil field as part of the terms of the service contracts Iraq signed with the firms. Baghdad has to start paying back costs of developing these fields and remuneration fees when they achieve a 10 per cent increase in production.

India will have to seriously think about its role anew as a new Iraq emerges in a new West Asia. Delhi has an expanding set of interests in the region and Baghdad can once again emerge as a reliable partner if ties with it are nurtured carefully. Appointing an ambassador is a good, albeit modest, start.