The world will miss a stable Syria

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad surprised both detractors and supporters when he adopted a hardline on protests which have erupted in his normally tightly controlled country over the past two weeks. Syrians and foreign observers had expected Assad to announce reforms demanded by the protesters and give a timetable for implementation. It had also been suggested that he would indicate when not if the state of emergency — imposed in 1963 when the ruling Baath party seized power — would be lifted.

He did neither. Instead, he blamed ‘conspirators’ acting on behalf of Israel for the unrest and warned, “If a battle is imposed on us today, we welcome it.” At least 61 people have died during demonstrations which began in Deraa and spread to Syria’s main cities. In Syria, the spark that ignited the unrest was the arrest of 15 teenagers who had spray painted anti-regime slogans on walls.

Assad may have thought he was in a strong position to resist the demands of the reformers. He has received messages of support from various Arab leaders and was given a major boost by hundreds of thousands of Syrians who poured into the streets on Tuesday to demonstrate their backing.

Popular president

While some protesters and veteran opposition figures have called for the removal of the Baath Party regime that has ruled Syria with an iron hand since 1963, most have not demanded the fall of the president who has enjoyed considerable popularity. After assuming power after his father’s death in 2000, he tried to introduce political reforms but was compelled to retrench by powerful figures in the politico-military establishment. He has, however, managed to reform the centrally managed economy into what he calls a social market economy, by combining welfare programmes with a free market.

Ayman Abdel Nour, a Syrian dissident based in Dubai, pointed out that there are “two wings in the regime. There are those behind the bloody crack-down and those who want reform. It is a tug of war.” It would appear Dr Assad has lost this round in the tug of war.
Looking back to the speedy departures of the presidents of Egypt and Tunisia when confronted by people’s power, analysts in Jordan ask, “How long does Assad have, two weeks or three?” People here fear the sort of protracted instability and violence precipitated by the US ouster of Saddam Hussein in neighbouring Iraq. Syria and Jordan now host 2.2 million Iraqi refugees who are a drain on the countries’ resources and a constant reminder of the risks of instability.

The destablilisation of Syria could lead to widespread unrest in West Asia. The Iraq of Saddam Hussein, once the secular core of the eastern Arab world, is no longer a force for co-existence and stability.

Jordan, which has experienced protests for the past seven weeks and has already faced clashes between status quo and reformist elements, could also see confrontation between indigenous Jordanians and Palestinians who comprise about half the population.

In both Jordan and Syria, the main challenger to the regimes, is the Muslim Brotherhood. In Jordan it is the only well organised political force. Its rise to prominence in either country — which is more likely in Jordan than in Syria — could lead to tension and even clashes with Iraq, now ruled by an assertive regime dominated by the Shia equivalent of the Brotherhood.

Iraq itself is facing protests against Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki due to its failure to deliver electricity, security, and jobs and to counter corruption. Protests could escalate into a new insurgency.

Chronically troubled Lebanon could erupt into communal conflict if Damascus, Beirut’s stabilising partner, falters. This could prompt Israel to attack Lebanon with the aim of eliminating or degrading the defensive capabilities of the Shia Hezbollah movement which humiliated Israel by routing its armed forces in 2000 and 2006. While Syria has aided Hezbollah by permitting the transit of weapons from Iran through its territory to Lebanon, Damascus has also restrained Hezbollah.

Furthermore, in spite of vehement anti-Israel rhetoric, the Baathist regime has not allowed Syrian or Palestinian militants to mount attacks on Israel from the northern sector of Syria’s Golan province in spite of Israel’s 44 year occupation and colonisation of the southern Golan Heights. Instead, both Dr Assad and his father attempted to peace deals with Israel with the object of regaining the Golan Heights.

While Tehran has drawn Iraq into its sphere of influence, Iran’s only real ally in West Asia is Syria. Damascus has played a positive role in moderating the adventurist Iranian leadership which has repeatedly challenged the US and Europe on various issues, notably Tehran’s nuclear programme. Stable Syria would be sorely missed.