Russia's approaching non-election

Speculation is rife whether President Dmitri Medvedev or Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will end up running next year in Russia’s presidential election. The supposed rivalry between a youthful reformer and his conservative mentor makes for welcome intrigue in a country where competing political views have long gone missing from the public discourse.

Putin, Russia’s president from 2000 to 2008, handpicked Medvedev from his Kremlin entourage because of a constitutional ban on three consecutive presidential terms. Now Putin could legally return to the presidency two more times – conceivably holding office until 2024, since one of Medvedev’s first legislative initiatives was to extend presidential terms from four years to six.

The partners in the so-called ruling tandem have left open which one of them will run for president next March, reacting with a mixture of irritation and embarrassment when journalists confront them with “the 2012 question.”

All the two leaders are willing to reveal is that they’ll reach a decision together, at the appropriate time. A premature announcement, Putin said in April, would cause half the government to stop working in anticipation of changes at the top.

No change
While the choice between Medvedev, 45, and Putin, 58, may affect the career paths of individual ministers, it won’t change anything for ordinary Russians. For one, the two leaders themselves have repeatedly rejected the notion that there are significant differences between them. More importantly, it’s a foregone conclusion that the candidate with Putin’s name – or endorsement – will win the presidency. The top-down “power vertical” that Putin built as president endures, guaranteeing election results and locking out genuine opponents.

Not even Medvedev, officially Putin’s boss, has much say. Plucked from obscurity, he owes his current job entirely to Putin. Although Medvedev made modernisation of Russia’s corrupt, oil-based economy the catchword of his presidency, he has little to show for his efforts. More than once he has presided over tragicomic government meetings complaining that ministers ignore his orders. If Medvedev vanished from the political scene tomorrow, he wouldn’t leave a trace.

Russians expected more of democracy when they flocked to their first presidential elections 20 years ago this summer. After Russians overwhelmingly elected Boris Yeltsin, an ex-Communist apparatchik who had embraced the cause of free-market, democratic reform. The euphoria didn’t last long, however, as the chaotic transition to capitalism plunged the country into poverty and pessimism.

As his second term drew to a close, Yeltsin lacked the faith in Russian democracy to leave voters to their own devices. Instead he designated Putin, then a little-known Kremlin official, to preserve his legacy.

The transfer of power from one generation to the next has been a factor of instability throughout Russian history. Russia’s post-Communist leaders haven’t broken with that tradition, though it’s not clear if Putin chose a successor or simply postponed his own return.

The formal observance of rules is the basis of the tandem’s legitimacy. There is no reason to doubt Putin’s pledge that the coming election will take place “in strict accordance” with the law; he relinquished the presidency in 2008 as required by the constitution. At the same time, Putin has invoked the example of Franklin D Roosevelt’s election to four consecutive terms to show that there’s nothing inherently undemocratic about a four-term presidency.

For now, Putin is focusing on December’s parliamentary elections. In May he seized the initiative by creating a “People’s Front,” an amorphous umbrella group that would merge his United Russia party with hundreds of professional and civic organisations. In a single move, Putin widened his base while acknowledging that the governing party – a growing target of scorn – is no longer capable of delivering a resounding victory on its own.

By forming a giant coalition while squeezing out real opponents, Putin reduces the chance of organised social groups later turning against him. The tandem is likely to announce its presidential candidate only after the parliamentary election has been squared away, as Putin did four years ago when he nominated Medvedev. Then, if all goes according to plan, the Kremlin candidate will sweep the election as the standard-bearer of strength and stability. Whatever the next president’s name, the winner will be Putin.