Killing of Gadhafi a bonus for rebel fighters
Political reconciliation will depend on how the NTC and rebel fighters treat Gadhafi loyalists.
The capture and killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi on Thursday was a spectacular bonus for rebel fighters finishing off the protracted battle for Sirte, his hometown, and explains why his partisans held out for so long. His supporters in Sirte and elsewhere in the country can now be expected to abandon the struggle to reassert Gadhafi’s rule. His 42 year reign has, finally, come to a belated and bloody end. The rebels’ most urgent task is to round up Gadhafi’s defeated forces with-out precipitating a bloodbath.
Members of his tribe and allied tribes are primary targets for vengeance. Tuareg tribesmen, who joined Gadhafi’s militias, have taken to the desert or fled to Niger to escape retribution. Black Africans accused of being mercenaries in Gadhafi’s employ fear for their lives. Libyan Christians, who relied on Gadhafi’s protection, have expressed concern over the rise of Muslim fundamentalists.
With Gadhafi gone, the National Transitional Council (NTC) will be able to form an interim government, a step it refused to take until Libya’s main cities were under rebel control and Gadhafi was no longer a threat. Once such a government is appointed, it must impose security, begin to reconstruct the neglected and damaged oil industry, Libya’s main source of revenue, and rebuild the cities and towns destroyed during nearly nine months of fighting. Elections are due in eight months time.
One voice
Unfortunately, the rebels, who failed to unite in battle are unlikely to coalesce in governance. While the NTC has managed to speak with one voice most of the time since its creation, rebel armed forces are divided between Muslim fundamentalists, secularists, tribalists, Arabs and Berbers, easterners and westerners.
The commander largely responsible for the capture of Tripoli, Abdel Halim Bel Haj of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, has accused the NTC and local militia leaders of trying to sideline him, torpedoing efforts to create a unified military command.
Political reconciliation will depend on how the NTC and rebel fighters treat Gadhafi loyalists. Images shown of the colonel’s being kicked and dragged across the ground and armed rebel fighters vowing to eliminate his armed supporters do not augur well for the process of rebuilding national unity.
Gadhafi’s departure will have resonances in West Asia, in North Africa and, particularly, in Sub-Saharan Africa where he rebuilt the African Union into a viable body, dabbled in civil conflicts and played ‘king of African kings’.
In West Asia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which supported the revolt, expect to play roles in Libya in the post-Gadhafi period. The Saudi royal family could breathe a sigh of relief as he routinely accused the kingdom’s monarchs of following the US line in regional politics. However, the Syrian, Yemeni and Bahraini regimes, under challenge from popular revolts, are likely to clamp down even more fiercely on protests.
Having battled a mass movement for his ouster for many months, Yemeni President AliAbdullah Saleh could agree to stand and accept Saudi exile rather than risk death at the hands of angry Yemenis.
Impressed by the victory of the Libyan rebels, the Syrian opposition could agree to ‘militarise’ what has been so far a largely unarmed uprising. The Arab League, which authorised Nato military intervention in Libya, could come under pressure from the Syrian opposition and Western powers eager to overthrow the government, to follow suit in the case of Syria.
However, Arab rulers are unlikely to agree. Syria is the heartland of the Eastern Arab world and League members have warned that if the country erupts into civil conflict, the entire region could be destabilised.
Muslim fundamentalists could be the major winners. In North Africa, Tunisian and Egyptian interim leaders should very well be grateful for the peaceful uprisings that overthrew the two country’s long-term presidents without resorting to full scale rebellions as was the case in Libya. The ruling Egyptian military council could also consider Gadhafi’s fate as a warning to the generals to stop obstructing the country’s progress towards multiparty democracy.
For Sub-Saharan African dictators who rule unstable or failed countries, Gadhafi’s last stand is a nightmare which is likely to prompt them to strengthen repression rather than initiate reforms.
For the leaders, civil societies and people living in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which, at great cost in blood and treasure, have ousted dictators, the task of effecting the transition from police states to democracies poses an even greater challenge.
How they fare will determine not only their fate but also the fate of other oppressed peoples seeking freedom, the rule of law, and responsive governance.
