JOIN USThe visit by external affairs minister S M Krishna to Japan signifies a turning point in the relations between the two countries. “My aim...is to take our partnership to an even higher level,” Krishna said before his departure and probably succeeded.
The most important outcome of the 5th Strategic Dialogue between India and Japan is that the negotiations over a proposed civil nuclear cooperation agreement, which have stalled following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant in Japan, are poised to resume. It is world class news that Japan is re-entering the global nuclear plant technology market after months of soul-searching.
Krishna’s optimism on this score is infectious and duly made headlines all over India. But his Japanese counterpart Kochiro Gamba was cautious in confirming that Japan “will move forward (the) talks...while paying consideration to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.” The big question is whether the stage is being set for the forthcoming visit of Japanese prime minister Yoshihiko Noda to India in December.
Of course, this matter goes way past the bilateral relationship for its spillover effect on India’s ties with the United States and France as well, since, technically, Westinghouse or GE or Areva cannot do business with India unless the India-Japan agreement is wrapped up. And in turn, the entry of these companies into the Indian market will do a world of good by giving Delhi greater leverage in negotiating its cooperation with Russia. Diversified sourcing is always a good thing.
Again, the step that Japan took to remove seven Indian entities from its Foreign End User List opens the window for high-technology trade between the two countries. How the new window of opportunity translates as defence cooperation will be known when defence minister A K Antony visits Japan on November 2. The sophisticated futuristic concepts of Japan and India putting their brains, technology and capital together to create a defence industry and a market for their 21st century needs may be taking wings, finally.
There is political will in Tokyo to elevate the cooperation with India from its trough. The fact that Tokyo made an exception in India’s case when it reduced its overall Official Development Assistance programme has to be seen as a political signal. The proposed bullet trains will be high-visibility projects enhancing Japan’s profile in the growing Indian market. Equally, the bilateral agreement over rare earths (which are indispensable for automobiles and information technology products) signifies an important Indian overture that comes against the backdrop of Japan’s keen attempts to offset the predominance of China in this field (more than 90 per cent of the global supply).
Maritime exercises
Indeed, there is bound to be a Chinese dragon and an American eagle lurking somewhere inside the cozy Japan-India tent that is coming up in the greens. Antony’s visit may expose their presence.
The Indian defence ministry spokesman said, “Regional and global security scenario, maritime security, piracy in the Gulf of Aden and cooperation in the field of humanitarian assistance and terrorism are some of the issues that will figure prominently.” Maritime exercises are not new to the navies and coast guards of the two countries. Krishna revealed he suggested that in addition to bilateral exercises, the two countries could also hold multilateral ones and that Antony would “discuss this subject in greater detail.”
In the same vein, Krishna added, “We also discussed the Japan-India-United States trilateral dialogue. We agreed that it will be held very soon. It will cover regional and international issues of concern to all three countries.” All in all, Krishna went as far as he modestly could to underscore that India has a commonality of interests with Japan and the US over the rise of China and is willing to explore its frontiers.
Cherry-picking in inter-state relationship is never easy. Especially in a tripartite format where the two other legs are fused together almost inseparably for over six decades while the third leg is a newly crafted one, which at times also has a tendency to stand on its own. The danger is that the third leg may be left hanging in the air.
In geopolitical terms, neither for the US nor for Japan, the relationship with China is a zero-sum game – despite their differences, doubts and worries about each other’s strategic intentions. Their accent is so obviously on expanding economic cooperation, improving strategic mutual trust and on keeping differences and friction within manageable thresholds.
In short, these relationships – compared to the tender sapling that Sino-Indian relationship is (even accounting for the 60-billion dollar trade which is a drop in the ocean for China, US or Japan) – are already deep, wide-ranging and complex. India has scores of miles to incessantly sprint before it even vaguely catches sight of them.
The US deputy secretary of state William Burns reiterated last week that a “healthy relationship” with China is “central to our vision for the future of the Asia-Pacific region and the global economy. Trust and understanding between our two nations will be essential to America’s security and prosperity.” The audience at the 5th Biennial US-China Conference, which Burns addressed, would be an eye-opener for our pundits.
Feeling exasperated with their sheer inability to give enduring verve to the US-India strategic partnership, our mandarins are instinctively retrieving from the attic and dusting up the empty vessels of Circa 2005. Empty vessels make great sound but, alas, they are empty.
(The writer is a former diplomat)