Outcome of Assembly polls could dictate Rahul’s career graph
Normally, elections to state Assemblies do not hold much importance at the national level.
But, the 2012 elections in five states, especially the one in the country’s largest state of Uttar Pradesh, are different. For several reasons. The polls to UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur are not just important to these states but they have wider implications, both short term and medium term and to the government at the Centre besides having an impact on the upcoming elections to the posts of President of India and Vice President. They have the potential to impact on the political careers of some at the national level.
These polls are crucial for United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre which is shortly completing three tumultuous years in office. The stability/longevity of the government may well rest on the results. A good showing by Congress and Samajwadi Party may not just prop them to power in the state, the former may decide to bring on board the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party at the Centre. With 22 MPs in Lok Sabha, the SP may lend stability to the Union government so that the UPA is not left at the mercy of the Trinamool Congress of the temperamental West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, whose 19 MPs now support the Congress-led government at the Centre. Congress may like to get rid of Mamata at the first opportunity as she was responsible for holding up a series of key policy decisions of the UPA.
While SP would be a better bet for the Congress to share power both at the Centre and in Lucknow, the last word has not been said if the Congress would be a willing partner to the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party, led by the instinctive Mayawati in case the BSP emerges as the single largest party and the two decide to form government. Besides, the BSP has 21 MPs in Lok Sabha.
The Congress may not have high hopes in UP – the most optimistic Congressman is not giving the party more than 65 seats in the state – but a good showing will help improve its credibility. Badly badgered over the last nearly two years following a series of scams and much criticised policy decisions, Congress desperately wants some good news on the election front. A party now concerned over the perceived falling popularity rate across the country following the scams and Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption agitation, it is yearning for a win in Punjab and Uttarakhand, but a good showing in UP would be a bonus.
Morale booster
While the question of improving the credibility and image of the Congress party and the UPA government is important in the short term, in the medium term, a win will be a morale booster to face the 2014 general polls. For a party which has been doing poorly in successive surveys since coming to power in 2009, there is much at stake in the current elections.
What is at stake for the BJP, the main Opposition at the Centre? The BJP is hopeful that there is change for the better for the party in the hill state of Uttarakhand after installing B C Khanduri as chief minister, while in Punjab it is riding piggyback on the strength of Shiromani Akali Dal to pull off a win. As regards UP, it hopes it will be in the reckoning if BSP becomes the single largest party so that they can share power in the state.
The outcome of the state elections is important for the political fortunes of many younger politicians, Congress scion Rahul Gandhi, included. The AICC general secretary has been intensely touring the northern state for a year now and hopes to repeat the 2009 LS poll performance when Congress won an impressive 21 seats and vote share of 18.3 per cent. For Rahul to face the 2014 elections as Congress’ prime ministerial candidate, a good performance in the current elections is extremely important. The elections will also give an answer to his ability as a vote catcher for his party.
For another young leader too, the current UP election is critical - SP’s Abhishek Yadav, son of Mulayam –who is being projected as the successor of the SP strongman. Yadav jr. has been touring the state and may well be the CM candidate if the party comes to power. He is said to enjoy a good equation with Rahul Gandhi.
These elections, especially that of UP, will make an impact on the elections to President and Vice President of India slated for July and August, this year. With members of the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and state Assemblies comprising electoral college for the Presidential poll, a good show will be important for any party to have a say in the election to the country’s top-most post. In the presidential elections, UP alone contributes 83,824 votes out of the total 10,98,882 votes in the electoral college. Thus, the party gaining more seats has the potential to tilt the balance in the elections.
In a minor way, the polls in UP will have an impact on the Rajya Sabha too where the ruling UPA is in a minority. Out of the 62 Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant till April, 10 belong to UP. So, obviously, the performance in the state will have a bearing in the House of States not just immediately but in the long run too – UP sends a total of 31 MPs out of the 233 elected seats in the Upper House.
