Crackdown after failed UN motion
The collapse of diplomatic efforts to mediate Syria’s uprising reverberated across the country Sunday, emboldening a government that pressed on with a crackdown in the capital’s suburbs and the north and prompting rebel leaders to vow that only force would drive president Bashar Assad from power.
There were few words of optimism in a conflict that may or may not yet be a civil war, but it already bears the hallmarks of a prolonged struggle pitting a still relatively cohesive leadership against an opposition that has gained control of territory in some places, while crumbling before the government’s onslaught in others.
Even before the predictions of intensified conflict, the government’s citadels of support – Damascus and Aleppo – had begun, after months of relative quiet, to feel the brunt of a conflict that emerged nearly 11 months ago from the countryside. In some of the capital’s suburbs, military forces have recently begun to act like an occupying army, with residents reporting instances of looting and pillaging.
Bloodiest uprising
The events this weekend seemed sure to serve as benchmarks in an uprising that now stands as one of the Arab world’s bloodiest. The collapse of the UN Security Council’s effort to pressure Assad, after vetoes by Russia and China, came just hours after the military shelled Homs in what opposition leaders called the deadliest assault since the uprising began in March.
They said more than 200 were killed, a toll that Syrian officials flatly denied. The Assad government hailed the action by Russia and China as a rejection of intervention in Syria’s conflict, and a state newspaper signalled that the leadership would be more determined than ever to crush the uprising.
Overall, the domestic media’s coverage of the Security Council’s vote suggested that it was seen in Syria as an important sign that the government retained at least some legitimacy in the eyes of the world.
Armed defectors, joined by civilians who have taken up arms, number only in the thousands, diplomats say, but they, too, hinted at a determination to shift from what they saw as their mission months ago – protecting protesters – and toward a more traditional insurgency. That shift has been most visible in Homs and the northern region of Idlib. “Only military options are on the table,” Col. Riad al-Assad, a defector and commander of the Free Syrian Army, said in a telephone interview from his base in Turkey. “The political options have failed. This regime won’t end except through force.”
Though Riad al-Assad’s control over the defectors remains debatable – many diplomats and residents describe the armed opponents as far more atomised – there seems little question that the opposition is growing more militarised and determined. As in Iraq, after the US invasion, a debate has ensued over whether to call the conflict a civil war.
In Homs, many residents say they are reluctant to travel, even by late afternoon. Blackouts lasting hours have made winter feel more severe, and many have resorted to wood-burning stoves. Rival gangs of Sunni Muslims, who are the majority in Syria, and Alawites, a heterodox sect from which Assad draws much of his leadership, carry out tit-for-tat kidnappings, sometimes imposing hefty ransoms.
“Damascus has completely changed,” said a 50-year-old man who gave his name as Sharif. “I am not anti-Assad. I want to live in peace with my children and wife. But for the first time, I get the feeling that President Assad is going to fall from power.” So far, though, Syria seems less at a turning point and more mired in a war of attrition, as forces that began emerging in August gather speed. High-level defections have been exceedingly rare, and even as the government cedes territory in places like Homs and Idlib, it still counts on the support of China, Iran, and most importantly, Russia.
“What holds the regime together most of all is that the opposition is divided, the Arab League is divided, the international community is divided,” said Peter Harling, an expert on Syria at the International Crisis Group. “Just hanging on there, living another day, is ultimately winning. People may not like the regime, they may not support it, but they’re not convinced the moment has come that the regime is going to fall apart.”
