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Demographic dividend can boost Indian economy: IMF

Last Updated 29 April 2012, 20:36 IST

India’s continuing demographic dividend can add about 2 per centage to the annual rate of economic growth, if harnessed properly, according to the International Monetary Fund report.

However, it said that the growth in the working-age ratio is likely to be concentrated in some of India’s poorest states and that the demographic dividend will be fully realised only if India is able to create gainful employment opportunities for this working-age population.

The multilateral agency in its Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook report said that India’s demographic transition is presently well underway, and, unlike in China, the age structure of the population here is likely to evolve favourably over the next two to three decades.

This is in quite contrast to the Japanese workforce, which has been shrinking since 1995, and the Korean workforce that will start to decline beginning in 2015.

Transition

Most significantly, China has almost completed its transition to a “mature” age distribution structure, according to the report.

In India, both the level and the growth rate of the working-age ratio have exercised a significant positive impact on per capita income growth. In fact a substantial part of the acceleration in economic growth since the 1980s can be ascribed to demographic trends.

An increase in the share of a country’s working-age (15–64 years) can generate faster economic growth. The working-age population is generally more productive and saves more, increasing domestic resources for investment. The demographic dividend has been regarded as a key factor for economic growth.

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(Published 29 April 2012, 19:54 IST)

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