<p>The Indian Meteorological Department’s prediction of a normal monsoon for this year might bring cheer but there are several caveats that make the forecast not completely trustworthy. <br /><br /></p>.<p>The Indian monsoon is a complex phenomenon and it has defied the best scientific effort in the country to analyse it. The IMD has said that the rainfall in the June-September period is likely to be 99 per cent of the long period average of over 60 years. But there is also a 24 per cent chance of its turning out to be below normal.<br /><br /> Weather conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are crucially important for the origin and development of the monsoon. There are worrying signs of the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, which is historically associated with a weak monsoon. Some global weather agencies, which have better expertise and whose predictions have turned out in the past to be reliable, had actually predicted a below normal monsoon for India.<br /><br />What is of particular concern is that the monsoon may turn weak after a normal onset. Farmers would have planted their crops in the early part of the season but the subsequent failure of the monsoon would damage the growing crops. The onset of dry conditions in the latter part of the monsoon would adversely affect the next crop also. <br /><br />Farmers should be warned of this possibility and should be given guidance on the kind of crops that suit the erratic behaviour of the monsoon. Even a partial failure and shortfall in food production will hurt the economy badly. Inflation is still high, and higher food prices, a natural consequence of poor agricultural production, will play havoc with the macro economy.<br /><br />The reservations about the IMD’s optimism arise from its poor history of reliable predictions. It failed to forecast the droughts of 2004 and 2009, the years for which it had predicted a normal monsoon. It has also not been capable of predicting correctly the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. <br /><br />The IMD has fine-tuned its statistical models but much more research has to be done to understand and predict the monsoon more accurately. The national monsoon mission, which has now been set up, will hopefully be able to do it. Understanding the monsoon is very important in a country where agriculture is largely dependent on it.</p>
<p>The Indian Meteorological Department’s prediction of a normal monsoon for this year might bring cheer but there are several caveats that make the forecast not completely trustworthy. <br /><br /></p>.<p>The Indian monsoon is a complex phenomenon and it has defied the best scientific effort in the country to analyse it. The IMD has said that the rainfall in the June-September period is likely to be 99 per cent of the long period average of over 60 years. But there is also a 24 per cent chance of its turning out to be below normal.<br /><br /> Weather conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are crucially important for the origin and development of the monsoon. There are worrying signs of the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, which is historically associated with a weak monsoon. Some global weather agencies, which have better expertise and whose predictions have turned out in the past to be reliable, had actually predicted a below normal monsoon for India.<br /><br />What is of particular concern is that the monsoon may turn weak after a normal onset. Farmers would have planted their crops in the early part of the season but the subsequent failure of the monsoon would damage the growing crops. The onset of dry conditions in the latter part of the monsoon would adversely affect the next crop also. <br /><br />Farmers should be warned of this possibility and should be given guidance on the kind of crops that suit the erratic behaviour of the monsoon. Even a partial failure and shortfall in food production will hurt the economy badly. Inflation is still high, and higher food prices, a natural consequence of poor agricultural production, will play havoc with the macro economy.<br /><br />The reservations about the IMD’s optimism arise from its poor history of reliable predictions. It failed to forecast the droughts of 2004 and 2009, the years for which it had predicted a normal monsoon. It has also not been capable of predicting correctly the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. <br /><br />The IMD has fine-tuned its statistical models but much more research has to be done to understand and predict the monsoon more accurately. The national monsoon mission, which has now been set up, will hopefully be able to do it. Understanding the monsoon is very important in a country where agriculture is largely dependent on it.</p>
