JOIN USCracks in alliances
Never in the past did presidential elections divide the Indian polity so badly. Nor did any of them give pointers to things that may follow, which, some believe, 2012 is indicating. The current polls to the top-most constitutional post of the country has not left any political formation united-- be it the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) at the Centre, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Left Front (LF). It was also politicking and backbiting at their best. The divide in each of them has surprised political pundits as to what signal it offers for the big test-- the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Since the first presidential election in 1952 till 1974, it had been the Congress all through though it faced some real test in 1969 when Indira Congress faced tough opposition from the old guard, who went on float the Congress-O, a couple of months after the polls. However, things changed as coalition era, starting in late 1980s, came to stay. In 2002 when all except the Left Front came together to support the candidate of the then ruling National Democratic Alliance APJ Abdul Kalam. The election in 2007 saw ruling UPA nominee Pratibha Patil supported by the Shiv Sena of the NDA as she hailed from Maharashtra. The LF, instrumental in suggesting Patil’s name, backed her.
Despite the occasional drift by a party here or a party there in the past polls, they did not leave the political formations topsy-turvy. Look at the present scenario: the Trinamool Congress, which rejected Congress nominees and announced, along with the Samajwadi Party three new names, is not with the UPA in this election. The situation that the NDA finds itself in is humiliating, to say the least.
The Janata Dal (United) with whom the BJP shares power in Bihar, and saffron party’s oldest ally, the Shiv Sena, have decided to put their weight behind UPA candidate Pranab Mukherjee. Worse, the principal opposition party–BJP– did not offer its own candidate nor one from the NDA. It had to adopt 65-year-old Purno Agitok Sangma, who was with Nationalist Congress Party as its candidate–Sangma was propped up by two parties – the BJD and the AIADMK-- which are not part of the NDA! BJP’s No 1 choice was Kalam and the tribal leader and the former Lok Sabha speaker was chosen because the former president declined to contest! Surprisingly, the LF, too, faced internal churning on the issue : the CPM and the Forward Bloc have decided to support the Congress veteran while the CPI and the Revolutionary Socialist Party opted for abstaining from the election.
The Congress, the heading the coalition government, suffered a loss of face as Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee made public the former’s preferred candidates: Mukherjee and vice president Hamid Ansari. An hour later, along with SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, she announced three names for the election and it included prime minister Manmohan Singh. With this, the TMC, which is part of the government, and the SP, which supports it from outside, clearly indicated that they have no confidence in the prime minister. Stunned into silence, the Congress recovered later to make a statement that there was no question of the prime minister being a presidential candidate. But the Congress worked on Mulayam, who, within 48 hours, backtracked and agreed to support UPA’s workhorse Mukherjee.
The BJP, failing to cash in on Congress failures, be it in the government or the party, was jolted as two main partners backed the opponent. There was more drama in the offing. The Narendra Modi-Nitish Kumar (chief ministers of Gujarat and Bihar respectively) spat resumed during this phase as the JD(U) leader threatened to pull out of the NDA if Modi were to be made the coalition’s prime ministerial candidate for 2014 elections.
Mamata has always had love-hate relations with Pranab. That “Dada” as the finance minister refused to approve the bail out package -- running to over Rs 2,00,000 crore --for West Bengal was the last straw. Mamata always nursed a grouse that Pranab was closer to the CPM than to her even when she was in the Congress (Pranab is believed to have won the 1993 Rajya Sabha elections with the CPM support, then bitter rival of the Congress). Perhaps, “Didi” has not forgotten that she wept during a cabinet meeting as Pranab refused to okay populist projects proposed by her as then railway minister. Perhaps, Mamata, a mass leader unlike Pranab, has not forgotten that in 1984, when he opposed her becoming the West Bengal Youth Congress president.
Informed Congress leaders say Mamata opposed Pranab as she wants early Lok Sabha polls. “From the current 19 seats out of 42, she can win a majority of seats if the elections are held early and she can have more say in the next dispensation,” they said. However, the Congress is in no mood to let Mamata go out of the UPA fold despite the fact it was she who was responsible for stalling a string of reforms and the Lokpal Bill fiasco.
As for the JD(U), it is time to test waters and for Nitish to assess support for himself as “secular” prime minister in 2014. After 15 years of association with the BJP, the party is now talking of separation and the trigger for that is Modi. The move comes amid speculation that the JD(U) may go with the UPA in 2014. However, can the JD(U) go it alone in Bihar? Although, the JD(U) won seats close to simple majority-- 115 out of 243 in the 2010 Assembly elections-- its dependence has been telling over the last three elections as the BJP has bettered its “strike rate” (number of seats won compared to those contested) in every election. Nitish, too, could be positioning himself, whether he quits the NDA or not, of throwing his hat in the ring for prime minister’s chair! The Congress, which could manage only four seats in Assembly polls, however, is pleased over this development.
A senior Congress leader said: “It is a matter of time that we have alliance with the JD(U). With this, our core voters-- Scheduled Castes, Muslims and Brahmins -- will come back to us.” As it struggles to recover from the JD(U) shock, the BJP is now desperate to expand its base by attempting to bring in the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), its former partners. BJP veteran L K Advani met AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha and invited her to join the NDA while party leaders shook hands with BJD’s Naveen Patnaik during submission of nomination papers of Sangma. But then, neither of these regional satraps have opened their cards and they will wait for some time before deciding which way they are headed. As the Left finds itself vertically divided, the Congress knows that until 2014 it cannot count on the comrades for support unless Mamata leaves the UPA ship. However, what happens after the polls is anybody’s guess.
Developments in the run-up to the election could merely be posturing by various parties or testing waters. It is too early to say how they pan out or if they point at future alignments as various issues need to be thrashed out. Still, what happens from now on and how different parties play their cards would be interesting to study.
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