Strategic realism

The two countries have began realising their shared interests and common concerns in the emerging world order.

The meeting between prime minister Manmohan Singh and the Chinese president Xi Jinping turned out to be, inevitably, the highlight of last week’s BRICS summit in Durban from the Indian viewpoint. This was the first meeting between the two leaders and to the extent that personalities matter in diplomacy, a good chemistry with the new leader in Beijing becomes an asset while navigating the relationship with China forward. And, this is more so because Xi is destined to leave his mark in restructuring the Chinese policies, internally and externally through a formative period in that country’s modern history.

The India-China relations are at a turning point. Looking back, 2012 was a transformative year insofar as the two countries began acknowledging that their shared interests and common concerns in the emerging world order. There was added poignancy in that 2012 was also the fiftieth ‘anniversary’ of the war. Despite the unresolved border dispute, the two countries have shown the political will to advance the bilateral cooperation. High-level meetings are frequent, peace and tranquility prevail on the Line of Actual Control and trade and economic ties are on upward curve. There is growing coordination and cooperation on international issues.

The meeting in Durban took place against a challenging regional and international backdrop. China’s reach and influence in the South Asian region is expanding and India has special interests in its region. Specifically, China-Pakistan strategic ties are acquiring new directions different from their past ‘India-centric’ approach. The Afghan war is getting over but uncertainties lie ahead and India and China are stakeholders in regional stability.

Again, the US’ ‘rebalancing’ policy has not buffeted the India-China relations and the two countries have a manifest desire to keep things that way. Paradoxically, the tensions in the Asia-Pacific following the US’ ‘pivot to Asia’ may even have given an impetus toward preserving a tension-free atmosphere in the China-Indian relationship. Least of all, both India and China are entering a new phase of reform and both have grave internal problems to tackle. All in all, therefore, the balance has tilted in favour of cooperation rather than competition.

The meeting in Durban was not expected to produce results. Yet it exceeded expectations. It needs to be noted that whereas Indian officials were coy about divulging details, the Chinese side came out with a fairly detailed account. It reflects, arguably, Beijing’s sense of satisfaction with the Durban talks as much as underscores the degree of transparency that already characterises the high-level exchanges.

From the Chinese and Indian accounts, it is at once obvious that Manmohan Singh had a substantive discussion with Xi regarding the future trajectory of the bilateral relationship. The prime minister stressed the four main templates – respect for each other’s core interests and major concerns, deepening of mutual strategic trust, greater coordination and cooperation on international affairs and pursuit of policies conducive to peace and stability. He also specifically addressed the issues that come within the ambit of “core interests and major concerns.”

Dispel notions

From the Chinese angle, the issue of utmost interest concerns the Indian stance on Tibet, where the prime minister held out the assurance that “India will not allow Tibetans to conduct political activities against China in India.” Equally, he drew attention to India’s independent foreign policy, which rules out involvement in anyone’s containment strategy toward China. Interestingly, prime minister also expressed the willingness to display to the world community the cooperative nature of the India-China partnership and dispel the notions regarding an inherent rivalry between the two emerging powers.Clearly, the two countries agree that the border dispute is complex and it will take time to resolve it – although Xi said this should be “as soon as possible” – while in the meantime they remain committed to safeguard peace and tranquility in the border areas. Xi suggested that the two sides should “improve and make good use” of the mechanism of special representatives. Besides, he reiterated China’s interest in broadening and deepening mutual “military and security trust.” 

To be sure, a strategic opportunity lies ahead of India, given the clarity and foresight in the thinking at the policymaking level. India enjoys excellent relations with the three major powers (other than China) that are involved in the ‘Asian drama’  – United States, Russia and Japan. They are familiar with India’s independent foreign policy and recognise its traditional aversion to alliances and blocs. This may create shortfalls in the relationship at times but the overall comfort level still remains high. From the Chinese perspective, all that India represents or embodies in this respect is of consequence to its core interests and vital concerns. Xi told the prime minister that China regards the ties with India as “one of the most important” bilateral relationships and that China “commits itself to pushing forward the two countries’ strategic cooperative partnership.”

Put differently, both countries are showing strategic realism in developing a new type of relationship. India maintains a neutral position on China’s territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, which are contested by the neighbouring states. India held back from becoming a ‘lynchpin’ in the US’ rebalancing policy in Asia, while at the same time it welcomes the US’ full-bodied long-term engagement in the Asian hemisphere. India also remains cognizant of the strategic reality that China’s rise as a great power is inexorable and that a partnership of strategic trust needs to be constructed step-by-step. 

The time for building a new type of partnership is right now and through the coming decade when China and India are focused on meeting their development goals and the structural forces of economic globalisation are driving them towards a cooperative future built on the peace and mutual prosperity.   (The writer is a former ambassador)