NDA projected to win 227 Lok Sabha seats: Survey

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to win 227 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, 45 short of the magic mark of 272 in a house of 543, according to an India TV-C Voter poll projection released Thursday.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is projected to win 101 seats, said the survey conducted this month.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to raise its tally from 116 seats in  2009 to 202, while the Congress tally is expected to drop steeply from 206 in 2009 to 89 this time, it said.

The NDA's projected tally showed the following break-up: BJP 202, Shiv Sena 15, Akali Dal 5, Republican Party of India (Athawale) 2, Swabhimani Paksha 1, National Peoples Party (NPP) 1, Haryana Janhit Congress 1. Total 227.

The UPA's projected tally showed this break-up: Congress 89, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 5, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) 1, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) 2, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 2, National Conference 1, Kerala Congress (Mani) 1. Total 101.

Others - parties which are either part of the Third Front or outside and Independents - were projected to get 215 seats, with the AIADMK taking the lion's share of 27 seats.

The break-up for others: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 7, Samajwadi Party 20, Left Front 27, AIADMK 27, BSP 21, Trinamool Congress 24, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 12, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 12, YSR Congress 13, Telangana Rashtra Samiti 10, Janata Dal-United (JD-U) 5,  Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 10, DMK 5, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha 2, Janata Dal-S 2, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) 0, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 1, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 1, Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) 1, MDMK 1, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 2, AUDF 1, Bodoland People's Front 1, Nationalist People's Front 1, Sikkim Democratic Front 1, Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen 1, Independent 1. Total 215.

The BJP and Lalu Prasad's RJD are going to upstage Nitish Kumar's JD-U in Bihar, winning 21 and 12 seats respectively, and relegating JD-U to only 5 seats, the survey said.

The BJP is going to make a big comeback in Uttar Pradesh, winning 34 seats (up from 10 in 2009), followed by BSP 21, SP 20, Congress 4 and Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal 1.

Asked who they would prefer to elect prime minister between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, a whopping 59.1 percent of people in the survey opted for Modi, while 26.7 percent opted for Gandhi.

Asked which alliance should form the next government, 47.2 percent preferred NDA, 35.1 percent preferred UPA, and only 3.7 percent preferred the Third Front, with the remaining saying they don't know.

Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party is projected to get 7 seats, 3 from Delhi, and one each from Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka and one union territory.

Following is the state-wise break-up of the projected seats tally:

Arunachal Pradesh: Congress 1, BJP 1. Total 2

Assam: Congress 7, BJP 5, AUDF 1, BPF 1. Total 14

Bihar: BJP 21, RJD 12, JD-U 5, LJP 1, Congress 1. Total 40

Chhattisgarh: BJP 8, Congress 3. Total 11

Goa: BJP 1, Congress 1. Total 2

Haryana: BJP 6, Congress 1, INLD 1, Haryana Janhit Congress 1, AAP 1. Total 10

Himachal Pradesh: BJP 3, Congress 1. Total 4

Jammu and Kashmir: BJP 2, PDP 2, National Conference 1, Congress 1. Total 6

Jharkhand: BJP 8, JMM 2, JVM 2, Congress 1, Independent 1. Total 14

Karnataka: BJP 11, Congress 14, JD-S 2, AAP 1. Total 28

Kerala: Left Front 9, Congress 7, BJP 1, IUML 2, Kerala Congress (Mani) 1. Total 20

Madhya Pradesh: BJP 24, Congress 5. Total 29

Maharashtra: Shiv Sena 15, BJP 15, Congress 8, NCP 5, RPI (Athawale) 2, MNS 1, Swabhimana Paksha 1, AAP 1. Total 48

Manipur: Congress 1, Others 1. Total 2

Meghalaya: Congress 1, NPP 1. Total 2

Mizoram: Congress 1. Total 1

Nagaland: NPF 1. Total 1

Odisha: Biju Janata Dal 12, Congress 7, BJP 2. Total 21

Punjab: Congress 6, Shiromani Akali Dal 5, BJP 2. Total 13

Rajasthan: BJP 21, Congress 4. Total 25

Sikkim: Sikkim Democratic Front 1. Total 1

Tamil Nadu: AIADMK 27, DMK 5, DMDK 2, Congress 1, CPI 1, CPI-M 1, MDMK 1, VCK 1. Total 39.

Tripura: CPI-M 2. Total 2

Uttar Pradesh: BJP 34, Samajwadi Party 20, BSP 21, Congress 4, RLD 1. Total 80

Uttarakhand: BJP 5, Congress 9. Total 5

West Bengal: Trinamool Congress 24, Left Front 14, Congress 2, BJP 1, Others 1. Total 42

Delhi: BJP 4, AAP 3, Congress 0. Total 7

Union Territories: BJP 3, Congress 1, Others 1, AAP 1.