Kashmir outcome may provide Mufti, Modi with new opening

India-Pakistan and Hindu-Muslim are basically one complex of issues. That there is a symbiotic relationship between the three becomes apparent every now and then. But there is, at policy levels, an aversion to see the glaring reality.

Foreign secretary level talks in Islamabad were cancelled because the Pakistan High Commissioner in New Delhi, Abdul Basit, consulted Kashmiri separatist leaders. The chill was carried over to Kathmandu. Here was the umpteenth instance of Kashmir casting a long shadow on India-Pakistan relations.

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At the 1972 Simla Summit, Indira Gandhi returned 93,000 prisoners of war to Pakistan in expectation of some imaginary goodwill.

The Simla spirit did not prove to be a panacea for Indo-Pak mistrust and bitterness. Did Simla prove ineffective in the long run because a Kashmiri voice was not present at the Summit?

By the same logic, the Indira-Sheikh Abdullah pact of 1975 failed because Pakistan hovered like Banquo's ghost but never had a seat at the table.

Who knows, change may be round the corner because the Narendra Modi government appears to be bringing into play a different kind of energy. Sooner or later, the Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah's electoral strategy of communal polarization as a means to Hindu consolidation must run into contradictions - most certainly in Kashmir.

Already, a lesson appears to have been learnt. In the state, the BJP is in something of a shock. A 71 percent voter turnout in sub-zero temperatures in the 15 seats that went to the polls on Nov 25 is most extraordinary.

The BJP strategy to polarize the vote, then scatter the opposition appears to have been grasped by the electorate: heavy polling is evidence of a sort of counter polarization. It appears "dummy candidates", set up to divide the vote, have been bypassed by the electorate. How else is one to interpret the highest ever voter turnout in defiance of the hardliners' call to boycott elections?

BJP effort at communal polarization may have been taken to its extreme at, say, Zanskar in Ladakh. There has been a near total social boycott here of Muslims by the local Buddhists.

There has always been considerable scope to play one Muslim group against another. Indeed, even the Shias of Kargil have been divided. For instance, Anjuman-e-Islamia and the Imam Khomeini Trust have been in perpetual competition. But the scare that the Modi phenomenon has created, may well be affecting an unintended Muslim consolidation simply to block the Modi machine.

Another emotion driving these elections is a general disgust with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. It is tempting to see a similarity between the Gandhis nationally and the Abdullahs in the valley.

Yes, they are both in abysmal decline and the Gandhis and the Abdullahs have little credibility left as leaders in the foreseeable future. But this is where the comparison ends. Minus the Abdullahs, the National Conference has a fairly impressive line up of leaders. For example Shaikh Nazir, general secretary of the National Conference, has considerable credibility.

This precisely is the weakness in Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It is short on credible candidates.

The BJP is going flat out to accomplish its "Mission 44", which would give it a majority in a house of 87. Towards that end it has inducted RSS volunteers, primarily from Uttar Pradesh. These "voter guides" have unintentionally spurred the non-BJP voters to compose their differences primarily in favour of the PDP.

Communal rhetoric has been held back in the campaign so far. Even though RSS think tanks have been studying article 370 and how the state can be freed from it, the issue has not become part of the BJP's campaign. Is the powder being kept dry for the last phase of voting in Jammu where the Muslim vote is ineffective?

If the BJP falls short of 44 seats, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed will be the probable front runner. But the PDP may not be able to cross the halfway mark. Who will the Mufti then align with? A weakened Congress, unlikely to be anywhere near power in the foreseeable future, is hardly an attractive partner. Omar Abdullah's National Conference is even less attractive.

A political opening for both the Mufti and Modi may open up. The critical triangle sketched at the opening of this piece may then require a deep, steady gaze by both.