'It is going to be a temporary crisis'

INTERVIEW

A research scholar of repute, an eminent writer, a veteran journalist and academic, Srikant is all rolled into one. The man, who never used his surname, is director of ‘Jagjiwan Ram Institute of Parliamentary Studies and Political Research’ in Patna. Having closely watched Bihar politics closely for five decades and written on State’s caste matrix, Srikant tells Abhay Kumar of Deccan Herald that the present crisis in the State is a temporary phenomenon where the dust will settle after February 20. Excerpts:

You have written extensively on Bihar’s caste arithmetic and seen a complete transformation of state polity, particularly in the last 25 years. Do you think the present war of attrition between Manjhi and Nitish is an extension of battle of supremacy between the Mahadalits and the backward classes?
There is no war as such. But yes, it’s a fodder for media for the next one week. After some time, people will forget it.

Why a keen political analyst like you are saying this? Are you taking the present conflict within the JD-U lightly?
Today, you may feel that I am wrong. But nine months down the line you will realise that what I had said was absolutely correct. People tend to forget pleasant as well as unpleasant things fast.

You mean to say that the Mahadalit community, which has protested over 30 places in Bihar in the last one week and burnt effigies of Nitish, will forget and forgive Nitish by the time Assembly elections are held in October-November this year..

Nine months is too long a period. Nine months ago, Delhi voters gave the BJP all the seven seats (in Delhi) in the Lok Sabha polls. The same voters routed the same BJP in the Assembly elections. One year ago, Delhi voters were angry with Kejriwal. Today they have voted him to power in an unprecedented manner. So, if anyone is under the impression that the Mahadalits Vs OBCs’ war would continue till November Assembly polls, I think, he is under the false illusion.

But the BJP says that the extremely backward castes won’t ever go with Yadavs as the latter have oppressed them for years. Will then Nitish’s social engineering, in which he wants to bring EBCs, OBCs, Mahadalits and Muslims under one umbrella, work?
At least, the last year August bypoll result in Bihar shows that it’s a winnable combination. And why it should not be repeated in this year Assembly elections too?

But the BJP is likely to harp on how Nitish humiliated a Mahadalit leader and dethroned him…
As a political party, the BJP is free to level any charge. But as Nitish Kumar himself conceded that his credo of good governance had taken a back seat and that’s why he decided to take over the mantle again.

But his rivals argue that he cannot remain out of power for too long. Hence a drama was scripted to stage a comeback…
Let the floor test on February 20 decide who will rule Bihar for the next eight-nine months.

Manjhi had requested the governor that the voting be done through secret ballot. But the governor has informed the Assembly speaker that voting could take place either through secret ballot or lobby division.

I can’t recall that a floor test, through secret ballot, has ever taken place in the State’s political history. I have been informed that in parliamentary history, secret ballot is rare, but it has been used once in Uttar Pradesh in February 1998 when the Assembly session was convened to decide who was the leader of the House – Jagdambika Pal or Kalyan Singh. The voting took place through secret ballot on the directive of the Supreme Court. Kalyan Singh received 225 votes against Jagdambika’s 196 in the then 406-member House. The voting saw the end of one-day-tenure of the then UP CM Jagdambika Pal.

What will happen in Bihar on February 20 when the trial of strength takes place?
Well, it’s anybody’s guess.