<p>Research has made it possible for us to understand and predict human-wildlife conflicts. We can now pinpoint the areas of disturbances and work towards the dream of an ideal conservation process, writes Madhumitha B<br /><br /></p>.<p>Unnecessary for both humans and wildlife, conflict is unbecoming of an ideal conservation situation. Often the result of an outside influence, conflict needs to be done away with if we want to keep the hope alive for preserving the natural order of things, in the true sense of the word. Wildlife conservation is no easy task but it isn’t formidable either. <br /><br />It takes a lot of gumption – ethically, morally and legally – to take the necessary steps that can convert the months and years of dedicated research and intellect into actual solutions on ground. That is the challenge we face as a country, whose morality is caught amidst not just right and wrong but what’s mine and yours with the basic foundation of values slipping away from within us.<br /><br />In such a context, voicing an opinion about a species that is being threatened as a direct result of a human cause and getting the concerned people to listen, seems unattainable. But it is something that must be done as it has been for many years. When it comes to humans and elephants, the camaraderie goes back and forth. It is not to say that the species is <br />disliked by most but when conflict gets right in the middle, it can get intimidating and not just for humans. Conflict is an ugly term as it is an issue but is something that is largely present and unfortunately so. For elephants, the issue is just that much bigger. <br /><br />Conflict modelling<br /><br />Dr Varun Goswami, head of the elephant programme for Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), India and his team have established a method to understand and predict human-wildlife conflicts. Their research has led them to formulate a way to pinpoint the areas of conflict – those that are unknown and those that could have conflict in the near future. It is what they called predictive maps. It aligns the different areas based on wildlife presence – what species and number – along with factors such as villages, proximity to crops and takes into consideration those areas too, that have unreported incidents of conflict. <br /><br />“We have taken the often used occupancy modelling (that comprehensively represents where wildlife occur or their presence, population and distribution across areas and habitat use) to look at what drives wildlife into human habitation in order to arrive at possible conflict areas and prevent them,” said Varun, who is also a senior fellow at WCS. <br /><br />The study further adds, “The application of the occupancy models to our specific example system broadly suggests that the accessibility of crop fields and the availability of crops in these fields is a major driver of elephant crop depredation patterns and dynamics. <br /><br />Proximity of crop fields to the forest clearly provides greater crop depredation <br />opportunity to elephants. The presence and density of crop fields adjacent to forests can also be expected to increase as village density increases in landscapes such as ours, where local livelihoods are largely agriculture dependent.”<br /><br />The research titled Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models helps develop predictive maps and was a result of seven years of data on human-elephant conflict in the Garo Hills in North Eastern India. <br /><br />Although the study has focused on a specific area, the same can be applied to develop predictive maps across species of wildlife and national parks in a state like Karnataka that is grappling with conflict in several areas. <br /><br />“It requires two types of data – conflict and drivers of conflict (crops, fragmentation, etc.). The map can then be modelled on the results of these factors to be made context and species specific. Additionally, it can be tested to ensure that mitigation efforts have been successful in reducing conflict and help in management of conflict over time,” said Varun.<br />According to the research, predictive maps of conflict occurrence such as the one derived from this study can be used to prioritise management by identifying high-risk areas or can inform land-use zoning or spatial conservation planning. Conflict needs a multitude of approaches in an effort to keep them at bay or at best, keep them to a minimum. When it is <br />persistent and ever present, measures to confront them need to be efficient and <br />aggressive. <br /><br />But the reality is that conflict cannot be entirely eradicated from villages near forests but like the study highlights, it can be managed. “The prediction of future conflicts between wildlife and people and the design of holistic, lasting strategies that can effectively manage these conflicts, hinges on a clear understanding of conflict drivers over time and across space. To that end, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for potential biases arising from imperfect detection or reporting of conflicts,” said Varun in his research.<br /><br />There are measures in place to keep a check on conflict between humans and elephants and some are achieving their goal too. There are always newer and brighter ways to strengthen mitigation measures. But for all this to work, the effort to ensure there is no repeat of <br />conflict must be continually pursued on ground with a complete understanding of the how and why.<br /><br />Proactive approach<br /><br />Conflict is a big threat to wildlife conservation, said Varun who added, “In India, the tolerance level is traditionally high because of several factors. However, the flip side is the increasing density of people and competition for space and resources that could bring this tolerance down. We need to proactively deal with issues of conflict by deterring specific crop cultivation near forests and timely compensations to those who have incurred loss due to conflict of some kind.”<br /><br />It is a lot of work and it seems like it might be a lot less complicated if we understood the areas where confrontations could be possible and put the measures in place even before the problem could occur. This has been a requirement for many years now and while it is something that is being done in lone pockets and possibly in very small ways, there is a need for a much larger application of such resource across national parks in India. This could reflect optimism for conservation of our wildlife.<br /><br />Elephants and humans have a lot in common. For one, the memory. <br />Elephants, they say, never forget. They weep, they mourn and they cherish. They are a representation of living as a family. They are very close-knit and protect their kith and kin, irrespective of what life throws at them. They react only when they find an imminent and extreme danger to themselves or their families and when that is the case, they could be what we perceive as merciless and only because their strength knows no restraint. <br /><br />But we do. We understand restraint, we understand not to invade each other’s space, we understand consequences and most importantly we know enough to be able to understand them. So, isn’t it time we make the effort, take a step back and live while we let live?</p>
<p>Research has made it possible for us to understand and predict human-wildlife conflicts. We can now pinpoint the areas of disturbances and work towards the dream of an ideal conservation process, writes Madhumitha B<br /><br /></p>.<p>Unnecessary for both humans and wildlife, conflict is unbecoming of an ideal conservation situation. Often the result of an outside influence, conflict needs to be done away with if we want to keep the hope alive for preserving the natural order of things, in the true sense of the word. Wildlife conservation is no easy task but it isn’t formidable either. <br /><br />It takes a lot of gumption – ethically, morally and legally – to take the necessary steps that can convert the months and years of dedicated research and intellect into actual solutions on ground. That is the challenge we face as a country, whose morality is caught amidst not just right and wrong but what’s mine and yours with the basic foundation of values slipping away from within us.<br /><br />In such a context, voicing an opinion about a species that is being threatened as a direct result of a human cause and getting the concerned people to listen, seems unattainable. But it is something that must be done as it has been for many years. When it comes to humans and elephants, the camaraderie goes back and forth. It is not to say that the species is <br />disliked by most but when conflict gets right in the middle, it can get intimidating and not just for humans. Conflict is an ugly term as it is an issue but is something that is largely present and unfortunately so. For elephants, the issue is just that much bigger. <br /><br />Conflict modelling<br /><br />Dr Varun Goswami, head of the elephant programme for Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), India and his team have established a method to understand and predict human-wildlife conflicts. Their research has led them to formulate a way to pinpoint the areas of conflict – those that are unknown and those that could have conflict in the near future. It is what they called predictive maps. It aligns the different areas based on wildlife presence – what species and number – along with factors such as villages, proximity to crops and takes into consideration those areas too, that have unreported incidents of conflict. <br /><br />“We have taken the often used occupancy modelling (that comprehensively represents where wildlife occur or their presence, population and distribution across areas and habitat use) to look at what drives wildlife into human habitation in order to arrive at possible conflict areas and prevent them,” said Varun, who is also a senior fellow at WCS. <br /><br />The study further adds, “The application of the occupancy models to our specific example system broadly suggests that the accessibility of crop fields and the availability of crops in these fields is a major driver of elephant crop depredation patterns and dynamics. <br /><br />Proximity of crop fields to the forest clearly provides greater crop depredation <br />opportunity to elephants. The presence and density of crop fields adjacent to forests can also be expected to increase as village density increases in landscapes such as ours, where local livelihoods are largely agriculture dependent.”<br /><br />The research titled Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models helps develop predictive maps and was a result of seven years of data on human-elephant conflict in the Garo Hills in North Eastern India. <br /><br />Although the study has focused on a specific area, the same can be applied to develop predictive maps across species of wildlife and national parks in a state like Karnataka that is grappling with conflict in several areas. <br /><br />“It requires two types of data – conflict and drivers of conflict (crops, fragmentation, etc.). The map can then be modelled on the results of these factors to be made context and species specific. Additionally, it can be tested to ensure that mitigation efforts have been successful in reducing conflict and help in management of conflict over time,” said Varun.<br />According to the research, predictive maps of conflict occurrence such as the one derived from this study can be used to prioritise management by identifying high-risk areas or can inform land-use zoning or spatial conservation planning. Conflict needs a multitude of approaches in an effort to keep them at bay or at best, keep them to a minimum. When it is <br />persistent and ever present, measures to confront them need to be efficient and <br />aggressive. <br /><br />But the reality is that conflict cannot be entirely eradicated from villages near forests but like the study highlights, it can be managed. “The prediction of future conflicts between wildlife and people and the design of holistic, lasting strategies that can effectively manage these conflicts, hinges on a clear understanding of conflict drivers over time and across space. To that end, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for potential biases arising from imperfect detection or reporting of conflicts,” said Varun in his research.<br /><br />There are measures in place to keep a check on conflict between humans and elephants and some are achieving their goal too. There are always newer and brighter ways to strengthen mitigation measures. But for all this to work, the effort to ensure there is no repeat of <br />conflict must be continually pursued on ground with a complete understanding of the how and why.<br /><br />Proactive approach<br /><br />Conflict is a big threat to wildlife conservation, said Varun who added, “In India, the tolerance level is traditionally high because of several factors. However, the flip side is the increasing density of people and competition for space and resources that could bring this tolerance down. We need to proactively deal with issues of conflict by deterring specific crop cultivation near forests and timely compensations to those who have incurred loss due to conflict of some kind.”<br /><br />It is a lot of work and it seems like it might be a lot less complicated if we understood the areas where confrontations could be possible and put the measures in place even before the problem could occur. This has been a requirement for many years now and while it is something that is being done in lone pockets and possibly in very small ways, there is a need for a much larger application of such resource across national parks in India. This could reflect optimism for conservation of our wildlife.<br /><br />Elephants and humans have a lot in common. For one, the memory. <br />Elephants, they say, never forget. They weep, they mourn and they cherish. They are a representation of living as a family. They are very close-knit and protect their kith and kin, irrespective of what life throws at them. They react only when they find an imminent and extreme danger to themselves or their families and when that is the case, they could be what we perceive as merciless and only because their strength knows no restraint. <br /><br />But we do. We understand restraint, we understand not to invade each other’s space, we understand consequences and most importantly we know enough to be able to understand them. So, isn’t it time we make the effort, take a step back and live while we let live?</p>
