JOIN USObservers agree that a ‘Yes’ vote in Sunday’s referendum could mean the end for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. In any case, pressure would build on him to resign.
Already, his Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has told Germany’s Bild newspaper that he will resign if Greeks vote ‘Yes’ in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms package, reiterating comments he has made before. Asked if he would really resign if the outcome of the referendum was ‘Yes’, he told Bild: “Absolutely.” But he added, “There will not be a majority for ‘Yes’.”
In the event Tsipras resigns, the Greek president Prokopis Pavlopoulos would need to assemble a ‘unity’ government from different parties. The arithmetic doesn’t look easy.
In the Greek legislature — called Hellenic Parliament — Syriza has 149 MPs. Along with the right-wing populist Independent Greek party with 13 members, it has a comfortable majority.
Combined, the three moderate opposition parties — centre-right New Democracy (76 seats), centre-left Pasok (13) and pro-EU populist To Potami (17) — would add up to only 106 seats, well short of the required majority.
Therefore, European hopes revolve around a moderate coalition originating from within Syriza, teaming up with the opposition parties to form a unity government.
The Syriza is convinced that their European interlocutors are gunning to bring down its government with a ‘Yes’ vote. Only time will tell, whether in the event of the party losing the referendum, its opponents would be able to cobble up a working government to resume negotiations.