Why India should join Chinese Belt and Road Initiative

The Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences, China, hosted a two-day China-South Asia Think Tank Conference last month in Kunming, the eternal spring city of China. A large number of delegates from India and other countries of South Asia attended.

The theme of the forum “Building Belt and Road: Towards a Community of Shared Interest”, was in way, set by China in order to generate consensus on its new initiative - One Belt One Road - through the “think tanks” in the region.  I was one of the delegates.

Among all the initiatives, President Xi Jinping has made the construction of silk roads – Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road – a top priority for China’s foreign policy and announced a fund of $40 billion towards the same.  One can focus on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its challenges and opportunities for India, and also whether India should join in this initiative as proposed by the Chinese.

The BRI refers to the proposal made by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September during his overseas visits in 2013 for the revival of the ancient trade, culture and sea routes linking China with Europe on which silk, tea and other products were traded. It aims to build rail, road construction and sea route development to link China with the rest of the world. Basically, it has two components: geo-economic and geo-strategic. This initiation could potentially touch 4.4 billion people and within a decade could generate trade above $2.5 trillion.

It aims to work with neighbouring countries to speed up the development of Asia; to contribute greater connectivity among East Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia and West Asia; to develop and improve the supply chain; to bring pan-Asian and Eurasian regional cooperation to a new and higher level; to improve the infrastructure development; to drive greater reforms in the countries around the rim; and to promote cultural and people to people exchanges.

International observers are of the view that these twin initiatives of China would lead to Sino-centric order where Beijing would write the rules of the game for others in Asia and beyond and that it is the Chinese response to the US policy on Asia pivot. However, for India, BRI constitute both an opportunity and a challenge.

Indian was formally invited by the Chinese to join the BRI during February, 2014.  So far, India’s response to BRI has been ambivalent and at times reactive as it is a unilateral initiative of the Chinese unlike the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) initiatives and also due to lack of clarity on the ‘how’ and ‘what’ of China’s plans and whether BRI has a geo-economic rational or a more security oriented one.

The economy of China is five times higher than India and New Delhi has no capacity to block the project, to which the new Chinese leadership is fully committed. But the fact that China needs India’s support for the initiative provides an opportunity for its western neighbour to attempt to tie its own projects, such as, the ‘Mausam”, “Spice”, “Cotton” routes, with the Chinese initiative.

Since India has already shown its approval for China’s BCIM (Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation) development plan, it would be better for India to join the BRI initiative and perhaps it can be a stepping stone to a new Look East Policy/Act East Policy. It is therefore, unrealistic for India to stay away from her neighbours.  It can also be used to India’s benefit for greater bilateral and regional cooperation.

India should welcome and join the project, albeit with due caution, and actively seek areas of congruence where the development of infrastructure under BRI (sea port development, connectivity, infrastructure, etc) could dovetail with India’s own development priorities and certainly delay is really not the answer.

Core areas
India needs to protect its core areas of interests such as trade, economy and resources during the outreach of India’s maritime interest. However, it should welcome the BRI and try to initiate its projects that are congruent with its own developmental needs and its neighbourhoods and global policy goals.

Similarly, the Chinese also should address issues related to the trade imbalance and trust deficit. It should allow Indian investments, particularly in areas, like IT, pharmaceutical sectors etc, where it has been seeking Chinese permission for a long time. Further, the initiative should be designed in a way that it is for mutual benefits – it should not become a conveyor belt or a dumping ground.

India should join the initiative but it is important that it should be designed in a way that India gains from out of it. Necessary institutional reforms must be undertaken in this direction.  We live at a time when it is impossible to remain confined to the traditional security framework.  
Given that some 50 countries, including most of India’s neighbours have welcomed this initiative and Chinese investment in their infrastructure projects, it will be better for India to join the initiative and seek the investment for its infrastructure projects such as railways, power, telecommunication, engineering and the manufacturing sectors.

Late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping had told then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi:  “An Asian Century is only possible when India and China come together.” Therefore, India can cooperate and compete with China on regional connectivity by synchronising its interests and reconfiguring the initiatives in such a way so that it can reap the benefits by enhancing connectivity rather remain isolated and miss the opportunities.

(The writer is Deputy Director, North Eastern Regional Centre, Indian Council of Social Science Research, Shillong)