Russia alters ground war in Syria

Turkey and Europe anticipate fresh waves of Syrian refugees acr-oss their shores and seek to stem the tide.

Russia’s high profile air strikes on insurgent targets in Syria and deployment of warplanes, tanks, armoured troop carriers, and several hundred troops have altered the ground war in Syria and reconfigured the camps backing and opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

While Russian air raids have struck Islamic State (IS) positions and arms dumps, the majority of targets have been insurgent groups located in and around government-held territory, particularly those affiliated with al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra or containing rebel Chechen fighters.

Moscow clearly gives priority to rooting out opponents threatening the capital and the coastal cities where the government holds sway. The expected entry of battle hardened Russian “volunteers” will bolster overstretched Syrian ground forces.

By focusing on Turkish, Saudi and Qatari supported Nusra and its fundamentalist allies, Russia has demonstrated that al-Qaeda and company cannot be off limits or regarded as components of a “moderate” camp.  Nato, the US and its partners have been trying to blur the distinction between radical fundamentalists and “moderates” in recent months because “moderates” no longer exist.

The Free Syrian Army adopted by the West and Gulf Arabs has been exposed as an umbrella grouping for scores of disparate factions seeking funds and arms. These groups join operations mounted by Nusra, share fighters with Nusra and when not fighting IS cooperate with IS, the chief target of US and Western air strikes – even though, paradoxically, IS is aided by the fundamentalist trio, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Russia’s deployment has compelled Washington to announce plans to provide air cover for a so-far unscheduled ground offensive by Syrian Kurdish and Arab forces against IS headquarters in the Syrian city of Raqqa. A second objective is to seal a 96 km stretch on Syria’s border with Turkey through  which IS receives recruits, arms, funds and goods.

The US has pledged to make this an “IS-free zone,” a goal Turkey supports as long as Syrian Kurds are denied control of the area, preventing them from linking up Kurdish-held sectors along the Syrian-Turkish border. Turkey has opposed arming the Syrian Kurds who are allied to insurgent Turkish Kurds demanding autonomy or independence.

Russia’s intervention effecti-vely puts an end to Turkey’s demand – resisted by the US – for the creation of a no-fly zone and safe haven in northern Syria where insurgents could be based and refugees accommodated.

Moscow has stepped up arms deliveries to the Syrian army which has been struggling to contain IS and the other fundamentalist factions since March when the Saudis and Qataris increased weapons supplies to Nusra and IS. This aid enabled Nursa to seize the north-western province of Idlib and IS to capture Palmyra in the east.

Finally, Russian war planes have challenged Turkey’s right to declare a 5 km-wide “no-fly zone” on the Syrian side of the two countries’ border by staging incursions into Turkish airspace, notably over Hatay province which is claimed by Damascus as Syrian territory wrongfully awarded to Turkey before World War II by the French colonial regime. Nato and the US have, naturally, taken this tease seriously, fearing the prickly Turks could clash with the Russians.

Russia’s deepening involvement is taking place as the opposing camps are changing shape. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France, the expatriate Syrian National Coalition (which has no support in Syria) and 40 insurgent factions (excluding IS and Nusra) constitute the hard line camp demanding the ouster of Assad before  negotiations over a transition from his regime.

No talks without Assad

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has, however, suggested Assad can be involved in negotiations and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has admitted there can be no negotiations without Assad. Erdogan’s and Fabius’ statements indicate a softening of their governments' positions.

The US, UK and some other European countries argue Assad can take part in negotiations but he cannot “be part of Syria’s future.” Adopting an independent position, German chancellor Angela Merkel calls for talks with “many actors”, including Assad, the US, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The pro-Assad camp consists of Russia, Iran, the Lebanese Hizbollah movement, Algeria, Iraq and Egypt. Last week, Iraq formed a joint command centre with Russia, Syria, and Iran to share intelligence on IS while Egypt, the latest to align with Assad, declared support for his fight against “terrorists” which Cairo equates with its battle against IS in Sinai.

The erosion of anti-Assad stands adopted by Turkey, the US, UK, and Germany preceded Russia's air strikes but is likely to be accelerated by Moscow's direct intervention in the conflict. Turkey and Europe also anticipate fresh waves of Syrian refugees flowing across their shores and, at long last, seek to stem the tide by trying to end the conflict that is driving Syrians and Iraqis to flee their countries. To achieve this end Assad has to be in the loop and his army in the field.