A model state now at crossroads

Punjab in recent months has moved from one crisis to another. Only two months ago, the state was reeling under violence after spate of farmers’ suicides in the wake of cotton crop loss led to widespread protests by farmers seeking compensation from the government, accused of irregularity in purchase and distribution of spurious pesticide.

After this, Punjab had to face mass anger due to the repeated incidents of desecration of the revered Guru Granth Sahib. Days earlier, the Akal Takht made a serious flip-flop, first they exonerated Dera Sacha Sauda chief for allegedly impersonating the 10th Sikh Guru and then retracted it after statewide protests.

Looking at the larger picture, the anger is not only about people’s hurt religious sentiments that have brought back the painful memories of the days of militancy or about the inadequate compensation for the crop loss. Arguably, these incidents have provided an outlet to the disillusioned people to vent their frustration that has arisen due to widespread corruption and politics of intimidation that has prevailed in the state for quite some time now, a result of the well-entrenched politician-mafia nexus.

The slipping control of the Badal family-led Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) government has raised the spectre of electoral opportunity for the Opposition. To compound the woes of the SAD-led eight-year-old coalition government, its long-term partner, the BJP, has distanced itself from the firefighting efforts. It is turning out to be a personal challenge for Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal who has been instrumental in turning the Akali Dal agenda from ethnicity-based issues to one based on development and peace and enjoys the image of a moderate leader and a reconciler.

Badal is facing the flak for undermining the authority of the sacred Sikh institutions, using them for electoral gains and turning a cadre-based and ideologically-driven party like the SAD into a tainted “family party”.

What does the woes of the Akalis augur for the emergent political scenario in the state as it stares at the 2017 elections? Since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP seems to be contemplating about the opportune time to jump the ship as the state party leadership feels that remaining in coalition would result in the party facing the anti-incumbency wave.

In fact, if the much-neglected BJP has refrained until now from breaking up the alliance, in place since 1997, it is simply because the party has not succeeded in extending its traditional narrow, urban and caste-Hindu social support base. In addition, there is always a lurking danger that the party without having a credible local leadership with statewide support going alone in the fray may actually help the Congress that has always had decent support across the regions and communities.

Would it be then advantage Congress given the bipolar party system in place in post-1966 Punjab? The state unit of the Congress since the 2012 debacle has been in disarray. The infighting between the party’s factions led by state president P S Bajwa and regional satrap Capt Amarinder Singh has thwarted any concerted effort to take on the Akalis.

Simmering tension

The simmering tension is likely to remain even if a reluctant Rahul Gandhi brings Capt Amarinder back as the campaign head or state unit president. Moreover, the Capt Amarinder Singh-led Congress, when in power between 2002 and 2007, did not really succeed in bringing about development or checking patronage-based politics. 

Troubles facing the main contenders presents a clear opportunity to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to reap rich electoral dividend. In a state having 13 Lok Sabha constituencies, the debutant AAP finished third in eight constituencies in the 2014 elections. In seven of these eight constituencies, it received more votes than the margin of victory of the winning candidate, thus leaving its distinct impact over the final electoral outcome. However, things are not well with the AAP either.

The gain was due to the impeccable public record of the party candidates. These architects of AAP success are in political wilderness now, as the party “high command” has arbitrarily removed district-level conveners and workers. The whole exercise of “cleansing” the party of dissidents, including its two sitting MPs under the Punjab Plan, is in true old-days Congress fashion. The emphasis as of now seems more on silencing the dissidents’ rather than strengthening the party organisation.

The AAP leadership apparently refuses to learn from the dismal fate of the Bahujan Samaj Party, which despite making an impact in the early 1990s due to sizeable number of Dalits in the state (31 per cent), has floundered due to lack of autonomy to the state unit. The AAP candidates losing their deposit in the recent bypoll is hardly a surprise.  

The state politics is in a flux as mainstream parties are fighting their own demons, whereas hitherto dormant radical SAD factions look for long-term electoral revival, taking advantage of the recent crises. What gives hope in these difficult times is that the people simply do not want to go back to the harrowing days of ethnic strife that saw the beginning of the decadence of what once was the “model state” of India.

(The writer is professor, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh)