Time running out for both

RAHUL'S FAILURE, MODI'S SUCCESS : Modi will need all the support from those who voted for him in 2014 with great expectations. But they won't be there

And Rahul Gandhi has bombed again. He has improved his oratory, read his Wikipedia, even attended a few sessions at a conference in Aspen. And yet, when he tries to be original, he mucks it up.

As part of his youth outreach programme, the Congress vice president got a reality check when talking to young girls at Mount Carmel College in Bengaluru, he said, “Even though the BJP has come to power, I don’t see a strategy. I see a lot of talk. I see a lot of talk on clean your country. Are we serious? Clean your country, is it working? I don’t see it working. You see it working?” To his visible surprise and embarrassment, a majority of students enthusiastically said “yes”.

Here is someone who seemingly has everything: the right name, a clutch of sycophants ready to die at his every word, a liberal establishment that is literally begging him to take the reins of the country away from the incumbent having announced the arrival of Rahul 2.0 several times over the last decade, and an ability to disappear for weeks without anyone knowing anything. But the man, despite his best efforts, keeps on bombing. This would almost be laughable, a nice plot for a Bollywood blockbuster, if the stakes for the nation were not so high.

The reason why Rahul bombed in Bengaluru was simple: for all his tutoring, the man has no sense of the political pulse of the country. He seemingly thinks that if only he keeps repeating his ‘suit-boot ki sarkar’ mantra, the prime ministership is for his taking. The Congress’ entire political strategy is to discredit Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his agenda.

The calculation seems to be that if they can obstruct Modi’s agenda, his whole developmental project will come to a ha-lt, discrediting Modi and his brand. And so it doesn’t matter if ‘Swachh Bharat’ or ‘Make in India’ are laudable ideas. The Congress Party and Rahul Gandhi will continue to make a case that these are useless initiatives destined to fail.

Just think about the bankruptcy of this idea. A political opponent certainly is under no obligation to support government’s initiatives. But if the initiative is generically sound which is the case here, then politically the Congress should be talking about how to improve upon these initiatives, not disparage them at every given opportunity. But all Rahul Gandhi has been suggesting for months is how these initiatives will never work. What is important for Rahul is to first and foremost discredit the prime minister.

To be fair to the Congress, this strategy seems to be working to a degree. All those who have never been supportive of Modi in the past, were vociferous against his prime ministership till the last vote was cast in May 2014, and will today find it difficult to make a credible case that India is being governed by a less effective and responsive government than in recent past have now come together to launch a campaign to save India from ‘intolerance.’

There is a method to this madness. Before every election, raise the pitch on intolerance, bring the focus on Modi, link his present to his past, and then suggest ‘Look we told you so.’ The whole campaign has just one target: the prime minister.

Rahul Gandhi’s acolytes have, of course, taken their vilification of Modi to a new level. Speaking during an interview to a Pakistani news channel, Mani Shankar Aiyar is reported to have said that in order to end the stalemate in the relations between India and Pakistan “the first and the foremost thing is to remove Modi. Only then can the talks move forward.

Cong’s conduct

Meanwhile, another Congress luminary and no less than a former external affairs minister, Salman Khurshid, has had no compunction in personally attacking his prime minister in Pakistan, suggesting to an audience of Indian friends that “Modi is not used to talking to people who disagree with him.”

Praising Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for attending Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in India, Khurshid said: “If you look back at the first face-to-face between the PMs, your PM took a brave, farsighted decision. What we said and did made things uncomfortable for Pakistan after the visit."

It really doesn’t matter to the Congress if the Indian foreign policy suffers in the process or if the Congress’ own credibility as a mainstream national party gets destroyed. So long as Modi is being diminished, all’s fair game.

But then, in this ‘Destroy Modi’ campaign, the prime minister himself has played an important role. He has not taken ownership of the Modi government the way he took ownership of the 2014 election campaign. The 2014 mandate was for Modi and for his developmental agenda; it was not for the BJP.

But surprisingly, he has allowed the direction of the government to drift with fringe elements taking control of the narrative. He has to marginalise these elements if he wants his government to get back to the business of governance. He needs fresh talent in his cabinet. Why rely on individuals who may be good at winning arguments in television studios but have very little to show in terms of actual delivery?

The only hope for the Congress in 2019 is to tarnish Brand Modi. And Rahul Gandhi will continue to do this despite his embarrassment in Bengaluru. So long as there are still voices in the crowd who can shout back ‘Yes’ to the Congress’ negative politics, Modi should feel reassured. In this, while the liberal establishment will always be with Rahul, Modi will have to trudge alone. He will need all the support he can from those ordinary Indians who had voted for him in 2014 with great expectations. But they won’t be there forever.

(The writer is Professor of International Relations, King’s College London)