Mathura queers political pitch

Fiery politics: As Uttar Pradesh closes in on election year, the recent violence may just be tip of the iceberg

As Uttar Pradesh inches towards another Assembly election, calculated moves and counter moves on the political chess board by important players have already begun. The ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) has been at pains to talk about development and showcase its achievements during the last four years, though it feels it can return to power only by placating its traditional vote bank.

The Bahujan Samaj Party, the SP’s arch-rival, feels history is in its favour and this time it is their turn to rule the state. The two regional outfits have almost finalised their candidates and other preparations are in progress.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which finished third last time, is elated with its performance in the recent Assembly elections in Assam. The party leaders claim that they will put in an impressive performance in Uttar Pradesh (UP), too, like it did in the Lok Sabha polls in the state, where the SP and the BSP were battered. The Congress has also started to reorganise its ranks and finalise the strategy.

Keeping an eye on the backward caste votes, the BJP has already nominated a new chief for its state unit from among the backward community. The party has, however, still not announced its chief ministerial candidate. That puts the BJP at a disadvantage when compared to its rivals, the SP and the BSP.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already started campaigning, at least symbolically, by addressing a rally in western UP to highlight the achievements of the Central government. Rabble rousers in the saffron ranks have simultaneously started raising passions in their own way. Open exhibition of militancy, including organising arms training camps at various places, have caught the media attention.

In this background, the Mathura violence has come as a serious jolt to the SP, which is already experiencing tremors of anti-incumbency.  Administrative and political acts of omission and commission that might have been the cause of first ignoring the nefarious activities of the so called Swadhin Bharat Subhash Sena (SBSS), headed by one Ram Briksh Yadav, and then taking strong police action to end the menace, have put the ruling party on the back foot. Nearly 30 people were killed, including a superintendent of police and a station house officer, and the state government still has no plausible explanation for all these.

The seeds were apparently sown after the death of Baba Jai Gurudev, a spiritual guru of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who unsuccessfully nurtured his political ambitions through a less known outfit–Doordarshi Party–launched to contest elections in UP. The party could not win seats but enhanced Jai Gurdev’s clout in political circles. The SP, which is championing the cause of OBCs, naturally felt closer to the political ideals of Jai Gurudev and acknowledged his influence among the SP’s own support base. When Jai Gurudev died leaving behind a mega spiritual and material empire, a fight ensued among various claimants to his legacy, with Ram Briksh being one among them.

It is intriguing that Ram Briksh established an illegal network indulging in all sorts of criminal activities but such was his clout that the law was never allowed to take its own course. When the government machinery ultimately moved to abide by the high court orders to remove SBSS from illegally occupying Jawahar Bagh, Ram Briksh let loose his army of supporters to fight the police, and the results are there for everyone to see.

The fall out is on expected lines. The BJP blamed Shivpal Singh Yadav, a minister and uncle of Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, for patronising Ram Briksh and ignoring all his illegal activities. The SP has naturally denied the allegations and held the local administration responsible for the lapses. The government has ordered the transfer of the district magistrate and the senior superintendent of police, while ordering a judicial inquiry into the incidents.

What about the victims?

BSP leader and former chief minister Mayawati held the state government and the Centre equally responsible. According to her, it was an intelligence failure as the Centre should have alerted the state against the illegal activities which were going on for such a long time in Mathura. The Centre could have sought its own report from the governor and sent an advisory to the state government, which it failed to do, Mayawati said.

But it seems more convenient to garner political advantage out of the tragedy than seeking justice for the people who were killed or injured.  Placed in an unenviable situation, the SP chose to target officials. Two officers have been transferred while more action is likely after the probe is over. Annoying the bureaucracy and the police may have its own disadvantages. Also, the Yadav clan, which forms an important chunk of the SP support base, naturally feels let down after the death of Ram Briksh in police action, and all this adds up to the SP’s political losses.

While people in UP are talking of development and good governance, electoral calculations continue to revolve around factors of caste and community. Political polarisation is a term publicly derided by every political party but carefully indulged in practice. While the SP and the BSP benefit from polarisation on caste lines, the parties also claim the support of minorities as does the Congress. The natural response of the BJP to prevent  exclusive support of minorities to any one party has been to polarise votes on communal lines. These processes seem to have begun with the elections fast approaching.

Incidents at Bisada near Dadri in western UP where a villager, Mohd Akhlaq, was lynched in September last year, have once again caught the limelight with a forensic report indicating that the sample of meat recovered from his house was cow meat. A section of villagers are now demanding registration of criminal cases against Akhlaq and his family for cow slaughter, which is a crime in UP. Communal passions are rising and opponents of the BJP accuse it of deliberately doing so. The large-scale communal riots in Muzaffarnagar which resulted in dividing voters on communal lines on the eve of last elections are presented as example of the BJP’s designs.

Incidentally, Mathura, Dadri and Muzaffarnagar all fall in western UP. The region is also feeling the impact of the Jat agitation in Haryana with the area having considerable Jat population of its own. If the agitation gathers momentum, it will escalate problems for the state government. Other regions of the state have their own dynamics which may unfold gradually as election draws closer.

(The writer is a Lucknow-based political commentator)