Brexit vote reveals a divide in Britain

In 1975, 69% of Britons voted to join the Eurpoean Union (EU). Recently, only 48% opted to remain in the EU. A pro-Europe view particularly in England and Wales swung towards one seeking sovereignty and independence.

Voter turnout was 72%, the highest in a national vote since 1992. This compares to the last Indian general election in 2014, which saw the highest ever turnout of 66.4%, and the last UK general election, which was 66.1%.

But given 52% of the 72% that voted wanted to leave (in other words, 37% of the eligible votes voted to leave), the vote showed a country divided.

The leave vote was strongest in regions economically dependent on the EU. A higher percentage of East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire’s economic output is sold to the EU, and yet 65% elected to leave. Although thousands of jobs depend on the Jaguar Land Rover factory in Coventry, 55.6% of voters in that constituency voted to leave. Wales and Cornwall have the highest level of EU subsidies in the country, and yet they voted to leave.
There was a strong negative correlation between the share for leave and education. Apart from London, which is generally more outward-looking anyway, in the rest of the country, the lowest education areas had a higher propensity to vote for leave.

Turnout increased by age, and older people tended to be more likely to vote leave. Young 16-18 year olds were ineligible to vote in the referendum (although they could in the general election), and some young 18-24 year olds failed to register to vote, in time.

Based on the final exit poll (although this result was widely similar in other such analyses), 75% of voters under 24 voted to Remain, while 39% of those 65 years or older did. The Referendum was based just on a simple majority, rather than requiring some kind of super majority.

The Indian vote followed a similar pattern. There are nearly 1.5 million Indians in the UK, and in the regions with 10% or more, Indian-origin voters (according to the 2011 census), turnout was lower than the national average, at 67%. In those areas, 49% of the voters opted to remain. In the poorest of these areas, all in former industrial towns in the north of England, only 39% opted to remain.

Similar to the rest of the country, Indian voters in these areas were worried about immigration. A key voter issue was about discouraging especially Eastern European migrants from coming to the UK. Sovereignty and the ability for the UK to make its own laws, the high perceived cost of EU membership and being able to trade more freely with the rest of the world, were all issues that resonated with voters.

The immediate aftermath of what will happen is uncertain. The few days since the vote have seen a bonfire of the existing political order. Prime Minister David Cameron, 16 of the Shadow Cabinet of opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, and the UK’s European Commissioner have all said they will resign, or have already resigned.

Most senior politicians have expressed a view to take their time over exercising Article 50, which triggers the formal departure process. The next three months will therefore be less about Brexit, and more about an internal leadership contest in the Conservative party, and perhaps in the Labour party too.

A petition on the Parliament website has generated nearly  4 million votes to compel the government to seek another referendum, this time requiring a supermajority. This is unlikely to succeed, but it shows the swell of feeling against the vote. Scotland voted to remain, and its leader Nicola Sturgeon indicated her party may veto any Parliamentary vote for the UK to leave, and may initiate a parallel negotiation with the EU about staying in.

In fact, these moving parts represent a recalibration of what “Brexit” might mean. The vote was a plebiscite in staying in or leaving, but indications are that even the main Brexiteers are seeking still to define what exact “leaving” might mean. For markets and business, this means additional uncertainty. For Brexit voters, some analysts have predicted “buyer’s remorse”, but for that to happen, the public first needs to understand what has been bought.

UK exports to India by value are actually lower now than in 2010. Indian exports to the UK are about 11% higher than in 2010. As a proportion of GDP, it is small for both countries. But in investment terms, both India and the UK are, respectively, the third largest investors in each other’s countries. The UK has been the most attractive market for inward investment in Europe not just for Indian companies but more widely too.

What the Brexit vote means for India-UK relations will become clearer over time, especially as what Brexit itself means becomes clearer.

(The author is Secretary General, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci))