JOIN USJuly 22, 2016 turned out to be Black Friday for the transport fleet of the Indian Air Force (IAF) when an Antonov-32 aircraft mysteriously disappeared over the Bay of Bengal.
The search launched for the missing aircraft is probably the largest in the history of Indian military aviation with 18 warships and 16 aircraft participating. This massive exercise has covered all four dimensions namely, air, surface, underwater and even space. Now, the Indian Space Research Organisation has been tasked to provide the Indian Navy satellite imagery of the waters where the ill fated aircraft was spotted last on radar.
The aircraft made the last radio contact around 16 minutes after takeoff and this transmission indicated that the flight thus far had proceeded normally. However, 42 minutes after takeoff, at 9.12 am, when the aircraft was around 280 km east of Tambaram, radar contact with the aircraft was lost somewhat suddenly.
Although there was no distress message received from the aircraft, reports indicate that it was seen by the radar operator to be in a sharp turn to the left and descending rapidly before it disappeared from the radar screen.
The last time the IAF lost an AN-32 over the sea was in 1986. Late Wing Commander U M Bheemaiah who was ferrying a brand new An-32, from Ukraine in the erstwhile Soviet Union, went missing somewhere over the Arabian Sea. The tragedy took the lives of seven aircrew members and the wreckage was never found.
Thereafter the IAF lost around eight or nine AN-32 aircraft in accidents only over land. During the mid-1980s, the IAF obtained 110 AN-32 aircraft from the former Soviet Union. These aircraft are used to para-drop soldiers and supplies, besides in communication roles to transport personnel across the country.
The AN-32 is essentially a re-engined AN-26 aircraft, designed specifically for the IAF, in the heydays of the Indo-Soviet relationship, which was largely founded on supply of military hardware. This sturdy aircraft is designed to withstand adverse weather conditions better than the AN-26. The estimated price for a modernised AN-32 version would be $15 million.
Today, the 100-odd AN-32 aircraft in service with the IAF have been flying for over 30 years. In order to ensure that these aircraft remain airworthy after logging thousands of flying hours, they are being put through mid-life upgrade for extension of service life.
The upgrade was approved in 2010 and 40 aircraft were sent to the Original Equipment Manufacturer at Kiev, Ukraine and the remainder are under upgrade at the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The political and military turmoil in Ukraine partially delayed the aircraft upgrade.
Such an upgrade strengthens the airframe structure which includes the fuselage, wings and tail plane. The upgrade also includes fitment of more powerful engines and modern avionics for ease of navigation. The ill-fated AN-32 that disappeared over the Bay of Bengal was an upgraded aircraft.
Perhaps the most likely cause for the loss of this AN-32 could be structural failure which resulted in separation of the left wing that made the aircraft go into a steep spiral with rapid loss of height. This could happen if a fire had developed in the left engine that was not controlled by the integral fire extinguisher. In this situation, there is little that the crew could have done to regain control of the aircraft.
Otherwise, the first thing that comes to mind is adverse weather. In this case, it is learnt that the pilot had requested for a deviation by 10 km from his designated route to avoid bad weather which was approved by the controlling agency. In any case, the weather conditions were not significantly adverse and hence the possibility of weather being a contributory factor is extremely low.
Sudden disaster
Clearly, the disaster that struck the aeroplane was somewhat sudden that left the aircrew with no time to even make a distress call. Such a situation can arise if there is powerful explosion on board leading to disintegration of the aircraft in flight. Could the aircraft have been sabotaged by anti-national elements? This possibility would have to be carefully examined by the investigation agency.
In 1988, a US built Hercules C-130 aircraft which carried late Pakistan President General Zia-ul Haque, crashed at Bhawalpur in a similar manner. The only possibility was sabotage by enemy agents.
In the case of the AN-32, the possibility of sabotage cannot be ruled out. Given that IAF Station Pathankot only recently suffered a serious terrorist strike, could Air Force Station Tambaram also have been vulnerable to enemy action through an offensive intelligence operation?
Success of search and rescue mission of an aircraft lost over the sea depends on how quickly the exercise begins. Delay only widens the probable area of the crash. This tragedy replicates that of the Malaysian airliner MH-370 which was lost last year over the sea.
Only when the wreckage of the AN-32 is located and the Black Box recovered, would the IAF be able to unravel the mystery behind this disaster. The Black Box which comprises the Flight Data Recorder and the Cockpit Voice Recorder would provide data of the final moments prior to the crash. It would help reconstruct the profile of the mission which can then be analysed.
At this point in time, one can only speculate on the possible cause of the crash. It appears that the crash could not be attributed to pilot error but in all likelihood to technical error.
(The writer is a former IAF pilot who has flown different transport aircraft)