One word changes UP poll landscape

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself in a tight spot in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh after one of its senior leaders made derogatory remarks against Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati and a string of attacks on Dalits, especially in the states ruled by the saffron party.

The BJP, which has 17 Dalit MPs from the state in the Lok Sabha, lost no time in sacking the erring former state unit vice-president Daya Shankar Singh, but political analysts as well as a section of the saffron party leaders in Lucknow feel the damage has already been done. The large number of Dalits on the streets of Lucknow to protest the BJP leader’s remarks on Mayawati was a testimony to the outrage in the community and was enough to trigger alarm bell in the BJP. That the saffron party was indeed wary of a backlash was evident from its decision to field its Dalit leaders, including all the MPs from the community, to counter the BSP in the politically crucial state. The BJP has asked its Dalit leaders to reach out to the community members in the rural areas and assure them that it would stand by them under all circumstances.

The saffron party has been trying hard to woo the Dalits in the state. The community, it is believed, had voted in large numbers for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, enabling it to win a record 71 of the 80 seats. BJP president Amit Shah had also recently visited a Dalit household in Bhadohi district and had food with the family.

Shah had also sought to portray the BJP as the only “messiah” of the community. The saffron party had, in an apparent bid to woo the community, also organised a Dhamma Yatra–a march by Buddhist monks–in the state as part of its “Dalit outreach programme”. The yatra, which got good response initially, had to face protests from Dalits in several parts of the state after youths from the community were flogged in public at Una in Gujarat. The protests forced Shah to cancel his participation in the Agra yatra.

The state BJP leaders say they are not worried. “There is no reason for us to worry...We have the largest number of Dalit MPs...We immediately sacked our leader over the remark...In the states ruled by us, the governments have acted sternly in cases of attacks on Dalits,” said state BJP chief Keshav Prasad Maurya. BSP leader Ram Achal Rajbhar, however, exuded confidence that the entire Dalit community was “solidly” behind “behenji” (Mayawati).

Regaining lost ground
This has also given an opportunity to Mayawati to regain lost ground in the state where her party had failed to open its account in the 2014 polls. Also, the party was facing heat amid large-scale desertions by senior leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya and R K Chaudhary as well as an aggressive BJP’s efforts to wean away Dalits from her camp.

The BSP has made it clear that it will make the slur against Mayawati its major plank in the Assembly polls due early next year. The party plans to hold rallies in different parts of the state to highlight the atrocities against the Dalits in the country, expose the BJP and the remark against Mayawati.

The Dalit writers opine that the issue could push the community closer to Mayawati and deliver a setback to the saffron party’s attempts to make a dent into her vote bank. “Though the Dalits would, by and large, have supported Mayawati in the upcoming Assembly elections in the state, the remarks by the expelled BJP leader would certainly galvanise them and she may gain electorally,” said Kali Charan Snehi, a prominent Dalit writer and professor at Lucknow University. Snehi said such remarks were reflective of the anti-Dalit mindset of a section of the society. He also said that there was a visible anger among the Dalits over attacks on the community members in UP and in other parts of the country.

Political analyst J P Shukla, however, doubts if the slur will result in electoral gains for the BSP though he admits that it has provided Mayawati with a big issue to hit out at the BJP. “The remarks against Mayawati has given her party an issue...The BSP cadre were completely demoralised after the humiliating defeat in 2014,” said Shukla. He said that the controversy might help the BSP to rally its supporters in the state. Shukla, however, expressed doubt if it would be an issue in the next Assembly polls in the state.

 The Dalits comprise about 20% of the electorate and play a crucial role in deciding the outcome in as many as 85 reserved seats. In the 2012 Assembly polls, the Samajwadi Party won 58 seats, while the BSP captured 15 seats. The Congress won four seats, while  the BJP won three seats.