Tectonic shifts in geopolitical alliances of Saudi Arabia

Sobering winds of change are blowing over Saudi Arabia with the harsh reality of geopolitical fickleness, forced austerity and the internationally exposed hand in bankrolling much of the Islamic world’s tryst with fundamentalism.

King Salman who took over from his half-brother King Abdullah in early 2015, faces some unfamiliar issues like having to restructure oil-dependency and face embarrassing stalemate in the Yemen war for the Saudi-led coalition forces.

The king also had to silently watch the rapprochement between ally US and ‘serpent’ Iran following the nuclear deal and, finally, endure the brewing prospect of a US-Russian understanding in the Syria-Iraq theatre to jointly take on the Islamic State (IS) elements (implied within that is the acceptance of the Assad government, much to the discomfiture of the Saudis).

Suddenly, things are not going as per the Saudi plans and fingers in Western capitals across the world are being pointed at Riyadh for financing much of the current mess, giving way to a sense of strategic churn with the realignments in West Asia.

These multi-dimensional dynamics are lending themselves to strengthening the strategic quid pro quo between Saudi Arabia and the only Islamic country with nuclear capability – Pakistan. Historically, they share a symbiotic relationship (described as “special relationship”) that has ensured Saudi largesse in the form of financial, diplomatic and strategic support during Indo-Pak wars, Bangladesh issue, “Islamisation” during Zia-ul-Haq’s Afghanistan-Pakistan endeavour and convergence on the Kashmir positions. This, in return for Pakistan underwriting the complex internal and external security imperatives of Saudi interests.

Now, the Saudi Arabian establishment is suddenly very sensitive to its diminished leverage in the region. “Arab Spring” has been a rude wake-up call for the 7,000-odd princelings of the Al Saud royal family and the Frankenstein-like monster unleashed by the Saudi-funded madrassas from Tripoli, Cairo, Peshawar to Aceh, which is threatening to feed on its creator internally.

Externally, the thawing of the Iranian freeze and its brazen (and successful) interventions via the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the private Shia militias in recapturing large swathes of land in Iraq is proving the dreaded nightmare of the “Shia Crescent” to be a reality.

The recent public optics of the crucial Saudi-US relationship is deeply fractured with the Americans being unable to handle the duplicity of Saudi support and export of militant Wahabism. This, when the American military is engaged in a simultaneous bloody war against Wahabi-inspired terror outfits and a general sense of anti-Americanism, even though the Americans are currently guaranteeing the Al Saud rule from implosive and restive tendencies locally.

In addition, there are also looming external threats of both sovereign (read, Iran) and non-sovereign nature (IS-like elements). To fill this crucial void of trust-deficit and military backup in case of dire urgencies, the role and relevance of the Pakistani establishment has become invaluable.

Recently, the uber-important Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made his second official visit to Pakistan this year, and then flew to China, in an ode to the tectonic shifts in the geopolitical stakes. The young prince is credited with redrawing the economic narrative of the Saudi establishment (he chairs a body overseeing the restructuring of the Saudi oil giant, Aramco), besides doubling up as the defence minister.

Saudi-Pak talks

The Saudis presumably extracted the requisite reassurances. The Inter-Services Public Relations worded the meeting of the Saudi prince and that of the Pakistani Army chief as having discussed “regional security with particular focus on the Middle East and issues of bilateral relations, including defence cooperation and collaboration.”

Later, the prince headed to Beijing for the first meeting of the Saudi-Chinese Joint Committee that saw the signing of 17 agreements and memoranda of accords in different fields of cooperation.

There have been murmurs that Saudis ‘wanted’ to offer the Pakistani Army Chief General Raheel Sharif the command of the 34-nation ‘anti-terror coalition’ after his retirement from the Pakistani Army. Saudi Arabia is probably the rare issue on which both the Pakistani military brass and the official civilian leadership converge and wholeheartedly agree upon.

Even Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is personally indebted to the Saudis as he was bailed out by them post the Musharraf coup and stayed in exile in Jeddah, for 10 years. All this institutional bonhomie posits Pakistan as an idyllic launch pad for Riyadh’s “Look East” policy.

The stinginess and increasing instances of multiple strings attached to the US support, both diplomatically and materially, are necessitating the outreach between the Saudis and the Pakistanis to encompass economic-military-strategic interdependence between each other.

China, then, becomes a common punt of extension for both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to leverage, given its imminent drive towards the ‘superpower’ status. The collateral impact for Pakistan with increased strategic imperatives with Saudi Arabia is the automatic strain with Iran, which is challenging the Saudis in West Asia with its sectarian undercurrent.

But this is the calculation of the inevitable price that would be tolerable for Pakistani strategists to pay for cementing the only alternative ‘bloc’ that could contain the glow of the dangerous ‘Indo-US’ warmth. The Saudis stand to gain the military cover and protection of the Pakistanis, while the Pakistanis get the economic sustenance and relevance within the ‘ummah’.

Amid all this, the Chinese tap into the geopolitical restiveness and insecurities by offering ‘superpower’ services, secure their own energy needs and gain invaluable access for their wares and produce. Clearly, the alternative regional drift and dynamics in the form of early green shoots of a strategic alliance is brewing in the US-India-Afghanistan-Iran combine. And it is witnessing an equal and opposite reaction by the ‘others’ in the fray, and in the region.

(Singh (Retd) is former Lt Governor, Anda-man and Nicobar Islands, and Puducherry)