Yadav family Mahabharat a blessing for BJP

The fight in the Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family may have given the much-needed boost to the BJP’s electoral prospects in Uttar Pradesh (UP). The BJP leaders feel that the weaker the SP, which they opine is their main rival in the state, the better will be its chances in the 2017 Assembly polls.

 The saffron party leaders, for whom the upcoming Assembly polls in the politically crucial state is a do or die battle, say the SP family feud has taken the sheen off Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s development claims. The BJP leaders also say that the recent developments have also severely dented Akhilesh’s image. “The truce brokered by Mulayam Singh Yadav may have brought a temporary respite for the SP...but the entire episode has conveyed a message to the people that Akhilesh does not have the capability to take decisions...the real power lies elsewhere,” says state BJP leader Vijay Bahadur Pathak.

Pathak says his party has been maintaining all along that there are four chief ministers in UP. “The family fight only proved our contention...All the claims of development by Akhilesh will now sound hollow...People will not believe him,” he said. The BJP leaders also think that the division within the SP rank and file may prompt many senior leaders, especially those from the upper castes and the non-Yadavs, to cross over to the saffron party. “We expect an exodus of such leaders from the SP in the near future,” says another senior state BJP leader.

The BJP is of the opinion that the differences within the Mulayam family, which they say are far from being resolved, may result in non-Yadav backward castes shifting their loyalty to the party in a massive way. There may also be some churning in the SP’s Thakur vote bank, which could benefit the saffron party. Political analysts also seem to echo a similar sentiment. “The confusion among SP supporters, especially the upper caste and the backward communities other than the Yadavs, may have caused irreparable damage to the party’s electoral prospects. While the Yadavs may not desert the party, the others may well shift their loyalty,” says Dinesh Kumar, a former faculty at Lucknow University.

Sources in the BJP said that the party had set its eyes on the influential Thakur and non-Yadav backward leaders. “Upper caste leaders are feeling neglected in the SP owing largely to the preference shown to one particular caste...the family feud may well push them towards us,” said another BJP leader. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP received widespread support from the upper castes and a section of the backward castes. The party now hopes to repeat its performance.

Shivpal hits back

It seems that the expulsion of a large number of leaders of various youth wings of the SP by the newly appointed state unit president Shivpal Singh Yadav may also benefit the BJP as many of the leaders, who were shown the door, were from the upper castes. In the 2012 Assembly polls, a large section of the young voters, irrespective of their caste, had voted for Akhilesh hoping that the young SP leader could resolve their problems.

“The dreams of these youths have been shattered...many of these young leaders will now have no reason to remain in the SP after Akhilesh’s removal as the state unit president,” the BJP leader added.

Though Akhilesh’s supporters, who have been expelled by Shivpal, say that they will continue to work for the chief minister’s victory, even the SP leaders here feel that many of them will certainly switch loyalty in the days to come. The BJP intends to take full advantage of the SP family bickering, which still continues despite the truce, by raking it up during its election campaign. BJP national president Amit Shah dropped enough hints to this effect at a rally in Lucknow recently. He said that the “Mahabharata (fight) within the Yadav family was over money...it has proved that the state government is neck-deep in corruption,” Shah said.

The saffron party also plans to make the re-induction of sacked UP minister for mining, Gayatri Prajapati, who was facing allegations of amassing huge wealth, into the state cabinet an issue. According to the state BJP leaders, the central leadership has asked the party cadres to “exploit” the “infighting” within the SP family and continue to corner the chief minister by portraying him as a “weak” leader.

Even the SP leaders feel that Akhilesh’s authority, not only within the party but also in the government, may have received a jolt following the recent developments. “Every time Akhilesh tried to stamp his authority, he faced a challenge from within his own family,” said a senior SP leader. There was also a feeling in the BJP that the sulking Mulayam family members may well work to ensure defeat of their rivals in the Assembly polls. “There is going to be a bitter fight within the family again over the distribution of Assembly tickets...We may well see a large number of rebel candidates in the fray...It will only benefit us,” said the BJP leader.

“We are already witnessing revolts in the SP district units...the crisis will only aggravate as the polls are near,” he said. With the next Assembly polls barely a few months away and its principal opponent still trying to recover from the shock, the saffron party may already have started nurturing hopes of capturing power in the state.