JOIN USTrump win has major effect on W Asia
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race could have serious consequences for West Asia. So far, Trump has made his intention clear on only one front: the Syrian war. He has reiterated his campaign pledge to join Damascus and Moscow in the battle against the Islamic State (IS) and rejected calls for weapons and political support from the Syrian opposition bent on ousting President Bashar al-Assad.
In his first interview as president-elect, Trump told the Wall Street Journal he would not continue the Obama Administration's policy of backing so-called “moderate” Syrian armed groups fighting Damascus. “I’ve had the opposite view of many people...My attitude (is) you’re fighting Syria, Syria is fighting IS, and you have to get rid of IS.”
He pointed out that Russia and Iran are aligned with Syria while the US is “backing rebels against Syria,” and, as he put it, “...we have no idea who these people are,” referring to mostly jihadi groups receiving training, arms and equipment from the US. He warned if the US attacks Assad, “we (will) end up fighting Russia, fighting Syria.”
He has repeatedly spoken of reconciling with Russia rather than adopting the confrontational approach of the Obama administration and European partners. While fighting IS, Trump could also join Russia in the battle against al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra with the aim of preventing al-Qaeda from reasserting itself on the global scene.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar have, apparently, reduced support for Nusra but Trump’s shift could roil Turkey, the funnel for jihadi fighters, funds and arms to the Syrian battleground. However, Trump’s military adviser former General Michael Flynn has called for closer relations with the increasingly authoritarian regime of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This could mean more military support in Erdogan's ongoing war against dissident Turkish Kurds.
To raise money, Trump has pledged to demand allies in Europe, Asia and West Asia pay more for US “protection.” This policy could threaten US arran-gements with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman at a time when they suffer from falling oil reven-ues. If “protection” is demanded, Gulf states could resist US pressure to join the fight against IS.
Trump could exacerbate the conflicts in Yemen and Libya by staying aloof and failing to promote political solutions. Once wars in these countries – Syria and Iraq have been brought to an end – he could refuse to provide financial aid to rebuild the devastation wrought by civil conflicts and the proxy wars involving the US. Generally generous Gulf donors could very well follow the US example.
This would produce precisely the sort of alienation and anger that have prompted thousands of Arabs to join IS and al-Qaeda and could encourage them to carry out attacks in Europe, the Indian sub-continent, Southeast Asia and the US.
Lifting of sanctions
Trump has said he will cancel the deal providing for Iran’s dismantling of its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting of sanctions. While Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies could welcome US withdrawal, the agreement was the work of the UN Security Council's five permanent members and Germany and is not Trump’s treaty to abrogate.
Tehran has carried out its obligation and the other signatories remain committed. They seek to benefit from an end to sancti-ons by purchasing Iranian oil and taking part in the reconstr-uction of Iran oil infrastructure and the opening up of its marke-ts to foreign goods and services.
One of Trump’s first actions was to invite Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has welcomed his election, to visit the White House. During the campaign, Trump surrounded himself with pro-Israeli advisers and pledged to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by moving the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to the contested holy city.
This would outrage Arabs and Muslims and infuriate rulers already facing serious challenges from disaffected citizens and anti-US and anti-Israeli radical groups. Such a move could also bring down the marginalised, dysfunctional, and corrupt Palestinian Authority and mobilise Palestinians for a widespread violent struggle.
The dangers posed by Trump’s Jerusalem stance has been exacerbated by an adviser who has said the new administration will reverse the policy followed by all its predecessors and no longer consider as “obstacles to peace” Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusa-lem, occupied by Israel in 1967.
The presence of more than 8,00,000 Jewish settlers in these areas prevents Israeli acceptance of the “two-state solution” supported by the international community, involving the emergence of the promised Palestinian state. In the absence of a Palestinian state, Arab governments cannot contemplate recognition of Israel and the resolution of the 68-year old Arab-Israeli conflict.
Finally, Trump considers global warming a “hoax” and says he will revoke US regulations limiting carbon emissions, liberating polluting industries, and pull out of international agreements imposing on the US the target of reducing emissions by 20% by 2023. Already suffering from drought, soaring temperatures and desertification, West Asia could become uninhabitable and millions of its citizens could seek refuge in Europe and elsewhere.