JOIN USThe leadership vacuum in the ruling AIADMK has become apparent after the demise of its general secretary and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa recently, despite the fact that her close confidant Sasikala becoming the apparent choice of the party top brass. The reason is not difficult to fathom. Jayalalithaa had never created a second rung of leadership during her regime.
Even if Sasikala were to take over the mantle, it may be quite a task to fill her friend’s shoes. Jayalalithaa, despite belonging to the Brahmin caste, was able to win enormous support from people of all castes and backgrounds in the state.
Sasikala and her family are in control of the party at this point of time. However, none of the AIADMK leaders could spell out the political ambitions of Sasikala, her husband and the couple’s numerous relatives.
Will the cadre and people accept Sasikala’s leadership? This will be evident only after the local bodies elections are held and the results come out. If the results go against the new AIADMK leadership, then the party may groom a new “crowd puller and vote catcher”.
In a way, the party’s senior leaders are relieved that Assembly elections are a good four and a half years away. At present, the biggest asset of AIADMK are the welfare measures implemented by Jayalalithaa.
“No doubt that Sasikala will make sure that a situation will not arise where party infighting leads to fresh elections less than a year after the party came back to power,” said political analyst S Venkatesan.
Jayalalithaa managed to overcome all her rivals when her political mentor, AIADMK founder and actor M G Ramachandran, died in December 1987. At that time, it was far from certain that the mantle of leadership would be Jayalalithaa’s.
“She succeeded in that. However, it is far from clear how Sasikala would do that,” he said. “In Parliament, the BJP will be friendly with the AIADMK to get the latter’s support for passing of bills. It will look to take advantage of the political vacuum resulting from Jayalalithaa’s demise,” he said.
Another huge task that Sasikala may face is that various leaders of the AIADMK, who were sidelined by Jayalalithaa, may use the opportunity to make a comeback and demand ministerial posts.
While Sasikala seems to be in control, she hopes to keep sway over the party to ensure that there will be no rebellion or divisions, despite the fact that the opponents would be looking for divisions in the AIADMK in the absence of the dictatorial grip that Jayalalithaa had established.
DMK’s chances
As regards the DMK, it has in place a succession plan of sorts whose strength is deep-rooted in dynastic politics. After the 92-old ailing party president M Karunanidhi announced that his younger son M K Stalin is the successor, almost all the party leaders and senior functionaries accepted it.
Stalin, who has spent years in the party already, gave a tough fight to the AIADMK in the recent Assembly elections as he virtually led the DMK. In the 235-member Assembly, the AIADMK has a strength of 135 and DMK 89.
Stalin’s ‘Nammaku Name’ (serve ourselves) programme during the elections also proved to be a success with most of the young voters attracted to it. Though Karunanidhi’s elder son M K Alagiri was sidelined for more than five years due to succession war with his brother Stalin, now the DMK is taking efforts to rope in the Madurai strongman into the party.
Many political analysts pointed out that Alagiri’s dismissal from the party was a great loss to the DMK. “The results in both Parliamentary and Assembly elections have shown that,” said K Janakiraman, another political analyst. “Now is the chance to bring back Alagiri as he can influence the voters in many districts,” he added.
Whether the AIADMK weakens or not under the new leadership, it is clear that Stalin-led DMK will go into the next elections – though it is far away - with a hope to perform better in the absence of Jayalalithaa, the party’s strongest political opponent.
Political equations after Jayalalithaa’s death will also impact other smaller parties, including Vaiko’s MDMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi led by Dr Ramadoss and the Dalit-based VCK, as they are expected to try and expand their vote bank. In addition, actor Vijayakanth-led DMDK, too, also fancies its chances.