SP hara-kiri alters UP pollscape

Topsy turvy: Events that unfolded on Friday has left the party's core Muslim-Yadav vote bank bewildered

The raging feud in the Samajwadi Party (SP) bringing Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and his father and party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav face-to-face which almost left the party on the brink of a split may have come to a temporary halt. But it has severely dented the image of the party and is likely to alter the electoral equations in Uttar Pradesh where Assembly polls are scheduled to be held in the next couple of months.

Political observers in Lucknow feel that the infighting within the SP family may impact its core “M-Y” (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank and trigger a churning in the two communities affecting all the major players in the state. This may force them to “alter” their electoral strategies in accordance with the new political equations.

The turf war within Mulayam’s ‘political family’, which has been going on for the past five months, has witnessed sacking of key ministers, including Mulayam’s brother Shivpal Singh Yadav, and expulsions of Akhilesh and his uncle Ram Gopal, and their subsequent revocation in a matter of 24 hours.

“The SP battle has triggered a confusion in its vote bank...party workers find themselves sandwiched between father-son duo...it does not augur well for the party,” said senior Lucknow-based journalist and political analyst Mudit Mathur.

While the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may be eyeing a golden opportunity, the BJP faces a dilemma as it may have to rework its electoral plank. The BJP’s biggest worry seems to be the Muslim vote bank of the SP. Muslims, who account for around 20% of the state’s electorate, play a crucial role in more than 125 of the 403 Assembly constituencies.

“It remains to be seen who will get the Muslims support...so far they have solidly backed Mulayam...the SP feud may force them to shift allegiance to the BSP,” a senior state BJP leader told DH. BSP supremo Mayawati, who enjoys the support of around 21% Dalit voters, has already been wooing the Muslims knowing well that their support could once again catapult her party to power. Mayawati has been asking the Muslims not to “waste” their votes by supporting the SP. “A series of communal riots has taken place during the SP regime…the minority community is not safe,” Mayawati had said.

The BSP has already deputed its senior leader Naseemuddin Siddqique and Haji Yaqoob Qureshi to garner support of the community in the western region, where Muslims are in sizeable numbers in several Assembly seats. “The BJP will be the biggest loser if the Muslims shift loyalty to Mayawati…she will have the winning combination in that case,” said Mathur. But columnist and political analyst Masood Ahmed said: “Muslims will support Akhilesh...there is a feeling in the community that Akhilesh is in a better position to counter the BJP in the state”. According to him, Muslims are likely to vote “tactically” and support the candidate who is better placed to defeat the BJP.

Akhilesh has also, in his list of Assembly polls nominees, fielded a number of Muslim candidates from western Uttar Pradesh. Within the SP, too, a large number of senior Muslim leaders, including those who had been with Mulayam for several decades, have extended support to Akhilesh, giving a jolt to the SP supremo and Shivpal.

Senior state minister and firebrand Muslim leader Azam Khan, ministers Ahmed Hasan and Kamal Akhtar have pledged support to Akhilesh. Azam, in fact, played the role of a mediator and persuaded Mulayam to patch-up with Akhilesh and revoke his expulsion.

The Yadav votes

Another churning may take place in the SP’s Yadav vote bank. Yadavs, who comprise around 16% of the total electorate, are a dominant force in more than 150 seats across Uttar Pradesh, especially in the central and eastern region.

Mathur says that a large chunk of Yadav votes would go to Akhilesh if he breaks away from Mulayam. “During the past four years, Akhilesh has emerged as the face of the SP...the youths from the community see in him the future leader, who has everything to inherit the legacy of Mulayam,” he said. An Akhilesh supporter said: “Akhilesh wants to send a message to the community members that he will not go against Mulayam, who is held in great respect by the Yadavs, especially the elder ones.” Within Mulayam’s political family, many senior leaders have sided with Akhilesh. Mulayam’s cousin Ram Gopal, his son Akshoy, nephew and MP Dharmendra and grand-nephew Tej Pratap are with Akhilesh. State unit president Shivpal Yadav and his son Aditya, however, are siding with Mulayam.

Political analysts, however, also feel that there might be a division in the Yadav votes which would ultimately damage both factions of the SP and benefit the rivals. A sulking Shivpal may play the spoilsport. A senior SP leader said: “Shivpal has many loyalists within the party organisation and he may ask them to lie low, impacting the SP’s electoral prospects, especially in the party strongholds of Etawah, Auraiya, Mainpuri and some other districts.”

As Akhilesh emerged on top in the SP battle, the changed political scene has increased the hopes of an alliance between the Congress, Akhilesh, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the JD(U). The Congress, which had outrightly rejected reports of an alliance, now says that it was keeping a watch on the situation. State Congress leaders, however, now feel that the party will gain electorally if it strikes an alliance with Akhilesh. “It will not only check the division of Muslim votes, but the Yadavs will also support Akhilesh, as the possibility of him returning to power will enhance manifold,” said a senior state Congress leader.

Akhilesh, who had been in favour of an alliance with the Congress, had not announced his candidates on a majority of the seats that were won by the latter in the 2012 Assembly elections. Mulayam had closed all avenues of an alliance by announcing SP nominees on the Assembly seats where the Congress had emerged victorious last time.

The BJP leaders said that they are keeping a watch on the political situation. “Nothing can be predicted about the attitude of the SP supporters,” said a state BJP leader. A source in the BJP said the process of selecting nominees for the Assembly polls might now be delayed. “We will have to wait and seen if new alliances are struck and change our strategy accordingly,” the BJP leader added.

 With the Assembly polls barely a few weeks away, it will be interesting to see how the fast changing political equations alters the electoral landscape.