BJP gets a chance to tide over demonetisation fiasco

Till demonetisation aftershocks ravaged the poor and the marginalised, the BJP managers were sitting pretty believing that the “surgical strike” in Uri and the nationalism narrative built around it will help the party win the crucial Uttar Pradesh elections. However, by November-end it became clear the “surgical strike on black money” that riled the aam admi and traders (the BJP’s traditional supporters) may electorally backfire.

As the BJP top brass went into brainstorming huddles to minimise the damage, Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav’s “surgical strike” on his son and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav by expelling him from the party for six years came as a booster shot for the saffron party. However, the delight did not last long as the father-son duo buried the hatchet in 24 hours.

Though a split has been averted in the SP, selection of candidates continues to be an area of friction. The fratricidal feud in the Yadav ‘khandaan’  and the frequent U-turns by its top leadership on the eve of election has given the BJP at least a psychological advantage as of now.

In any case, a three-way split in the Opposition camp is advantageous to the BJP. The scenario could still change if the SP, Congress, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the JD(U) forge an electoral alliance that could form the nucleus of an anti-BJP front with the Muslim-Yadav core. That is, if Mulayam plays the ball. The RLD can pitch in with its Jat votes, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar can help influence his fellow Kurmis (9% of population), while the Congress bags some Muslim, Dalit and Brahmin votes.

All these parties are headed by secular leaders talking of development. Interestingly, Twitter is abuzz with claims that an internal mail from Akilesh’s US advisor, Steve Jarding, has been leaked and that “the US coach suggests war in the SP is orchestrated to project CM as the development icon.” It remains to be seen who will have the last laugh.

BJP president Amit Shah and BSP supremo Mayawati are not sitting idle either. Shah has set up high-voltage election machinery with IT and IIT professionals to micro-manage the polls. Top saffron strategists are also working on the possibility of reaching a covert understanding with Mulayam (who controls party’s purse strings) while fielding candidates to contain the Congress and the BSP. They are also surreptitiously working to pre-empt alliances between rival parties and fronts. This strategy, coupled with social engineering, may help the party win the polls, sources claim.

In the 2012 polls, the SP secured 29.15% votes and wrested power from the BSP winning 224 seats. The BSP secured 25.91% (just 4% less votes than the SP) but bagged only 80 seats. The Congress secured 11.6% votes and 28 seats. The BJP got 47 seats and 15% vote share. Arithmetically speaking, the SP plus Congress or a BSP-Congress alliance could have been formidable to take on the BJP.

Mayawati has the core Dalit base and a chunk of Brahmin votes and if Muslim voters consolidate behind the BSP, it could tilt the balance. Besides, her tested persona as a tough administrator, especially on the law and order front, is a plus point. The BJP can steal a march over its rivals if it manages to woo the non-Yadavs, the non-Jatav Dalits and the upper castes. The party has several advantages – ruling party at the Centre, flush with funds, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s so called reformer image, party’s well-oiled election machinery and 71 sitting Lok Sabha MPs.
 
Cashlessness sets in

Nevertheless, the Muslims continue to be the BJP’s Achilles heel in the heartland state. If the minority community goes for tactical voting, that is electing the strongest anti-BJP party or front, it may consolidate either behind the SP or BSP as events unfold. Mayawati is trying to cash in on the demonetisation fiasco and the unpredictable nature of SP leaders, and is nudging Muslims to close ranks behind her.
To scare them, the BSP strategists have been propagating that Akilesh’s uncle Shivpal Yadav and general secretary Amar Singh having reached some covert understanding with the BJP. There was even speculation whether Modi may prop up Mulayam Singh Yadav as the President when incumbent Pranab Mukherjee demits office in July, though the RSS is unlikely to back a “socialist” candidate.

The Muslims constitute roughly 19% of voters and are in a position to influence around 300 out of the 403 Assembly constituencies. While it was a cakewalk for the BJP in 2014 when it won 71 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, 32 months later, the party seems to be losing voters’ confidence and is also reeling under the negative effects of demonetisation.

Nearly, 35% voters comprising Muslims, Yadavs and Jatavs can be counted out of the BJP’s kitty, while the remaining 65% is not a homogenous configuration. The BJP has the support of 8% Rajputs, besides just over 30% of Most Backward Castes. The 13% Brahmins, a bit alienated from the party, are being aggressively wooed by both the BSP and the Congress.

The BJP’s main drawback is that it does not have a chief ministerial candidate of the stature of Mayawati or Akhilesh. It has since lost a substantial chunk of its support base in the rural areas due to the bad implementation of the demonetisation agenda. A team of party MPs who visited the rural areas recently have given a negative feedback and have urged the leadership to take immediate steps to restore voter confidence.

All eyes are now on the budget next month when the government is expected to offer some sops for the aam admi and the middle-class to paper over the ill-effects of demonetisation after some announcements made by Modi on Saturday.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi)