JOIN USWhat summer holds for Kashmir?
The situation in Kashmir has changed drastically following death in office of chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed — his tenure saw relative peace as compared to the current cycle of violence. Before his death in January 2016, Kashmir had witnessed some peaceful summers.
In those three years (2013 – 2015), terrorist attacks and protests were relatively less in the Valley. However, 2016 turned out to be one of the bloodiest years in half a decade. The government and the army had to tackle terrorist and militant attacks throughout the year. The year witnessed 34 terrorist attacks, 104 slain terrorists and 60 martyred security personnel. If the past year’s trend is anything to go by, this summer in J&K could see a spiralling descent into another cycle of violence.
Last year, J&K dealt with one of the worst civil disturbances in the Valley. Mehbooba Mufti became the first woman chief minister of the state after the death of Mufti Sayeed, her father. The PDP-BJP coalition, under Mehbooba, has not lived up to people’s expectations. There was a rise in militancy in Kashmir in the first four months of 2016 with an ‘absentee government’.
Since the coalition government took power in the state, several protests broke out in the Valley, resulting in violence and bloodshed. Mehbooba was welcomed to power with a clash which broke out between Kashmiri and non-Kashmiri students at the National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, which resulted in the closing down of the institution for a few days.
The unrest flared up last year with the encounter of Hizbul Mujahideen’s commander Burhan Wani on July 8, 2016. Wani had gained popularity because of his social media persona. His death led to months of violence. Even separatist leaders joined the protest. Curfew was imposed in the Valley along with internet connection cut-off.
Later in the year, following the Uri attack, the NDA government conducted a surgical strike on a militant hideout, across the Line of Control (LoC). Since then, both India and Pakistan have had regular cross-border firing, which further disrupted the situation in Kashmir.
Early this year, Mehbooba indicated that the relations between the state and the Centre are tenuous. The bigger problems for J&K are unemployed youth, improper telephone connectivity and low tourism. This communication gap clearly needs to be minimised for the situation to improve.
Security forces are fighting local as well Pakistani terrorists in Kashmir. In February 2017, security officials stated that there are around 450 terrorists in the state and 350 of them are located in north of Pir Panjal. It is reported that the local recruitment of militants picked up after the death of Burhan Wani and about 100 militants were recruited over the last year.
The signs of a violent summer in Kashmir have already started to show up. On April 27 militants attacked an army camp in Kupwara district in which three security personnel, including an army captain, were killed.
Common sight
Meanwhile, the security forces are facing severe protests from locals including students. On April 15, 50 students were injured in a clash between students and security forces. It has almost become a common sight where student protestors resort to stone-pelting and security forces respond with tear gas. If these trends prevail, such clashes are expected to continue and even spike in the coming months.
The Union government has restarted the process of development in Kashmir. On April 2, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated India's longest road tunnel on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway. The Centre released Rs 19,000 crore for the development of the state.
The Centre and the state government should now prepare ground for political engagement in the Valley that is free from violence. The first step towards this lies with the army and the BSF which mans the international borders and the LoC.
However, it is important to understand that development is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for a solution. In the coming years, the state and central governments and security forces have to work together to take charge of the situation.
Security forces taking control of the ground will not automatically lead to political stability. The security forces must ensure that the numbers of militants don’t increase by ending infiltration and strengthening the counter-insurgency grid.
In addition, the state needs to empower J&K police personnel who are at the receiving end from both the militants and the public at large. The fact remains that Kashmir is not a simple problem and does not have a simple answer. The issues are multi-dimensional and call for a multi-dimensional approach to stabilise, control and resolve. There are no quick-fix solutions.
Unfortunately, looking at the current situation in the Valley, with violent outbreaks every other day, and students joining these protests, creating political stability will be a difficult task. The coming summer is expected to turn violent and bloody. The situation may become worse, before getting better.
(The writer, who was with Transparency International India, is an analyst with Information Team Services of MitKat)