Blockbuster in the making?

Following in the footsteps of MG Ramachandran in Tamil cinema was perhaps not a tough task for Rajinikanth. MGR was phasing out of cinema when Rajinikanth began his career. In 1978, MGR featured in his last movie  Maduraiyai Meeta Sundara Pandiyan.  By the time the film was released, MGR was already chief minister. The same year, Rajinikanth acted in  Mullum Malarum, an iconic film directed by the legendary J Mahendran. The rest, as they say, is history.    

Four decades later, Rajinikanth seeks to repeat the feat of filling a large vacuum. This time, in politics, and the vacuum left behind by MGR's successor J Jayalalitha and M Karunanidhi. Can he pull it off?

Rajinikanth tested political waters first in 1996 when he gave a 'voice' against Jayalalitha and her infamous 1991-96 administration. Jayalalitha lost the 1996 election. Since then, Rajinikanth has progressively buckled under constant pressure to enter politics. The actor had never said no. "God willing, I will," he would tell his fans. In December 2017, weeks after Jayalalitha's death, god apparently willed. Interestingly, his contemporary in Tamil cinema Kamal Haasan, too, has launched a political party.

Both actors apparently think that they could fill the vacuum created by Jayalalithaa's death and Karunanidhi's fading away. But they are not the only ones to think so. Jayalalitha's 'soul sister' VK Sasikala's attempts to milk the situation for her own benefit ended in a fiasco when she was arrested in the disproportionate assets (DA) case in February 2018. However, her nephew TTV Dhinakaran is proving to be a shrewder politician. After winning the RK Nagar bypoll, Jayalalitha's seat, as an independent candidate, Dhinakaran last week launched his own political party  Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam. Kamal Haasan launched his outfit Makkal Needhi Maiyam in late February and has since been touring the state.

The BJP also hopes to gain foothold in the state by using this vacuum. The party -- with a barely 2% voteshare has tried every possible trick, including manoeuvring the ruling AIADMK. Meanwhile, unlike the AIADMK, which has been left in a lurch after Jayalalitha died without naming a successor, the DMK has its path of succession clearly cut out. Leaving no room for confusion, DMK patriarch Karunanidhi named his son MK Stalin as his successor in the party. For the cadres of the DMK, there is no vacuum – certainly not in the DMK.

For Rajinikanth to find a toehold in the midst of all this could be challenging. Yet, the actor perhaps hopes to pull it off, like he would a stunt scene in one of his movies. Only, Tamil Nadu's political landscape is much trickier.    

Much as Tamil Nadu may look like a state with a star-crazed electorate that votes one cinema superstar into power after another, the reality is otherwise to any discerning observer. Karunanidhi was a successful scriptwriter, but he had also worked even harder in the political arena to become what he did; his superb success as the evergreen hero of Tamil cinema notwithstanding, MGR started from scratch when it came to politics.

He essentially grew up with the Dravidian movement. Jayalalitha worked hard to gain political acceptance, consciously deglamourising herself being one of the ways in which she did. These three cinema-to-politics successes contrast with the numerous others who tried to trace the same path but failed. MGR's acting peers from Sivaji Ganesan to SS Rajendran tried unsuccessfully to cut teeth in politics. Much later, actor Vijaykanth showed some promise when he launched his party DMDK, but that was because he was seen as an alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK within Dravidian politics. Several of MGR's leading ladies, including Latha and Vennira Aadai Nirmala, entered politics at his insistence, but none could make it as big as Jayalalitha did.

While Rajinikanth has appeased his fans by announcing his political entry, to anyone looking beyond his fandom, the actor's announcements look more like yet another fiery performance. After unveiling a statue of MGR at a university on March 5, Rajinikanth delivered a blistering speech where he sought to dispel many doubts about him. Asserting that he was indeed entering politics to fill in the  leadership vacuum, Rajinikanth declared that he could provide the kind of administration that MGR had. A week later, the actor drew flak when he said that he was "not yet a full-time politician".

He had also announced his next film after Kaala and Enthiran 2, with director Karthik Subburaj giving room for more confusion.

For Rajinikanth, there perhaps need be no confusion. He is simply not playing by the rules. He will do the unexpected. The attitude is very reminiscent of one of his famous dialogues: "Naan eppo varuven, eppadi varuvennu theriyaathu, aana vara vendiya nerathula correcta varuven (I am not sure when or how I will arrive. But when the time is right, I will arrive for sure)."

Whether this  filmy attitude will help him tide over the quicksand of Tamil politics is the question.

For one, even the magic of Rajinikanth's 'voice' didn't work more than once. In 1996, he spoke against Jayalalitha "Even the gods cannot save Tamil Nadu if Jayalalitha is voted to power again", he told the masses. Jayalalitha lost that election, but one has to factor in several other aspects that impacted the election, including GK Moopanar's revolt against Congress for aligning with the AIADMK and Jayalalitha's unpopularity at that time.

In 2004, when Rajinikanth urged his fans to work against the PMK in parliamentary elections, the appeal  came a cropper. The PMK won in all the five constituencies it contested.

Observers also point out that Rajinikanth does not have a political structure to work at the grassroots level. Whether his fan clubs could effectively double up as grassroots political cadre remains to be seen.

Rajinikanth will need quite a miracle to be able to cross these hurdles and rise to political power. Just like the one that catapulted him from bus conductor to superstardom.

(Kavitha Muralidharan is a freelance journalist and political observer)