White British may become minority in UK in next 40 years

Researchers at the University of Leeds say that the ethnic makeup of the UK will change dramatically over the next 40 years, with the country becoming far more ethnically diverse and geographically integrated.

By 2051 the White British, though still the largest group, will become an ethnic minority, the report says, and adds that ethnic minorities will make up one-fifth of the population by 2051 (compared to 8 per cent in 2001), with the mixed ethnic population expected to treble in size.

Key projections for 2051 include: UK population could reach almost 78 million (59 million in 2001); White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups to experience slowest growth; Other White (Australia, US and Europe) and Mixed to experience the biggest growth.

Ethnic minority share of the population to increase from 8 per cent (2001) to around 20 per cent, ethnic minorities to shift from deprived local authorities to more affluent areas, and ethnic groups to be significantly less segregated from the rest of the population.
Traditional immigrant groups of South Asian origin (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) are project to grow rapidly in size.

In contrast, White British and Irish groups are expected to be very slow-growing, while the Other White group is projected to grow the fastest, driven by immigration from Europe, the US and Australasia.

The London region, the report says, has the largest ethnic minority population and the most diverse.

The other regions have smaller ethnic minority populations, where Asian groups are more prominent than the Black groups in the regions outside London.Pakistanis are the largest Asian group in the West Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber and the North West, whereas in the East Midlands the Indians are the largest Asian group.

Project leader Professor Philip Rees of the University of Leeds said: "The ethnic makeup of UK's population is evolving significantly. Groups outside the White British majority are increasing in size and share, not just in the areas of initial migration, but throughout the country and our projections suggest that this trend is set to continue through to 2051".
He added: "At a regional level, ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived inner city areas to more affluent areas, which echoes the way white groups have migrated in the past. In particular black and Asian populations in the least deprived local authorities will increase significantly."