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Never has there been acrimony over prime ministerial candidate in the Opposition camp, as the country has been witnessing over the last few months in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections slated for next year.
There is no such problem for the rival Congress, going by precedent. Congress, which leads the ruling UPA coalition, rarely announces its candidate for the top job, in advance. Until 2004, the party’s president doubled up for the top job but with a low-profile Manmohan Singh becoming PM that year, convention made way for change in the year 2009. This time around, the buzz is around scion Rahul Gandhi, Congress vice president, as the natural choice for the PM post should Congress return to power.
The issue has been debated so much in the recent past that it has put the main Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party in a spot, with its allies virtually dictating terms to it, in a manner unprecedented so far.
It was perhaps because, from 1990s to 2004, former prime minister A B Vajpayee was the unanimous choice for the post, while his second in command, L K Advani, was declared the candidate in 2009. Now, for the last several weeks, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is facing a huge crisis over its perceived nominee for the crucial post.
The BJP’s projection of controversial Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as its possible choice to ascend the throne, has evoked strong and expected opposition from its biggest ally - Janata Dal (United) - with whom BJP has been sharing power in Bihar since 2005. JD (U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is such a strong opponent of Modi that he has no qualms about quitting the alliance if the latter is named NDA nominee. The Opposition coalition is caught in its worst crisis and is struggling to resolve it.
As of now, it appears difficult to halt the Modi juggernaut. The man with a controversial past, has stormed his way to centre stage and seems set to bid for the top post. But the ‘Hindutva icon’ has many critics, who accuse him of presiding over the Gujarat communal riots of 2002 - infamous as the post-Godhra pogrom - which left over 2000 (mostly Muslim) people dead and scores injured and homeless. The general perception is that the BJP cannot stop Modi in his tracks now.
Even the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh or RSS, the BJP’s ideological base with whom Modi once had a running feud and forced it into submission in Gujarat, has assented to his staking a claim to the top job.
Will he make the cut or not? That could be the question on many people’s minds but for a BJP watcher, there is little doubt on this score. So much so that BJP may even be willing to snap ties with key ally JD (U) although this may not augur well for the main Opposition party at a time when the NDA desperately needs to bring more allies on board in order to take on rival Congress.
It’s, indeed, a Herculian task to reach the seat of power. Having won a mere 115 out of the 543 seats in 2009, the BJP has to leapfrog to reach the magic figure of 272 to win. With that appearing a near impossible task to achieve on its own, the need for allies who can fetch it the required seats is being acutely felt. The NDA, which won 32 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2009 (JD-U winning 20 and BJP 12), is bound to lose most of the seats in the 2014 election if the two parties part ways, that too at a time when every seat counts for the coalition.
Even a small but old ally, Shiv Sena, is dictating terms to the BJP. The Maharashtra party recently asked BJP to name its PM candidate forthwith. Although it once favoured Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj for the key assignment, it is difficult to see the party opposing Modi. Party chief Udhav Thackeray had attended Modi’s third coronation last year.
If Modi is declared the candidate, he would be required to deliver at least 272 seats to the NDA kitty - an overwhelming task, indeed. In addition, he is perceived as a hugely polarising figure, hated by sections of the BJP as much as he is loved by others.
The Modi baiters insist, off the record, that the PM candidate’s choice is still open, hinting that even the 85-year-old veteran, L K Advani, could be the alternative. Some in BJP like Vinay Katiyar, Vijay Goel, Yashwant Sinha and Shatrughan Sinha have openly favoured Advani. So, Modi could face hurdles.
Rahul is first choice
The Congress faces no such dilemma as the BJP’s. Party vice president Rahul Gandhi is the chosen and accepted one but the Congress, as per convention, will not declare his candidature for prime ministership. The first signal though came on November 15, 2012, when Congress made the MPhil in Economics from Trinity College, Cambridge the face of the party for 2014 polls by making him the chairman of a six-member Coordination Committee.
Thereafter, on January 19, 2013, he was made the party vice president. But then, he seems a reluctant suitor for the post, perhaps because there is no certainty that the UPA will keep the ‘gaddi’ for the third time in a row. Foreign media publications see a dark horse in finance minister P Chidambaram, emerging as ‘Rahul’s Manmohan Singh!’
Notwithstanding the speculation, the on-going raging debate on `Rahul vs Modi for PM’ makes one wonder if India’s Parliamentary elections is taking the contours of the American Presidential race!
In the reckoning...
And what if neither of the two big parties manage to rustle up the required numbers? Well, the so called Third Front emerging in such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Such a rag-tag coalition had emerged in 1977, 1989 and 1996 but collapsed each time under the weight of its own contradictions. Still, it is under such a formation that some like Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav or AIADMK’s Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalitha see their chances, propped up as in the past by either the Congress or the BJP!
Thus, the situation across the country, a full year before the polls are due (unless held early) is that no party or formation can say for sure it is firmly positioned to grab power in Delhi.
What can, however, be deduced is that UPA may look to form the government in a scenario where Congress gets 150-plus seats, with outside support of the Left. But, for BJP to form the government, it has to cross 180 mark at least.
Even if Modi is projected as the PM candidate before polls, after the hustings he may have to be sacrificed for others if more allies have to be accommodated. At less than 140 each, the idea of a Third Front may emerge, backed by either the Congress or the BJP.
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