Has Arvind Kejriwal forced BJP to play on the backfoot?
Data from January to March on YouTube, where parties broadcast speeches, campaign material, and press conferences, shows the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) adding new subscribers while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s YouTube channels saw a comparative fall. Likewise, the figures released by YouTube for views and uploads for the week from April 20 to April 26 show AAP ahead of the BJP and the Congress.
This is noteworthy given that AAP has been beleaguered with the top galaxy of its leaders incarcerated, its resources depleted, its powers in Delhi circumscribed by the Centre, and the overall perception that if there is one force the BJP wants to finish, it is AAP. Still, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was released from jail on bail on May 10 for 21 days. He is currently on an intense campaign tour, asking: ‘Why did the BJP put me in jail? Is it because I gave your children better schools? Why did Modi put me in jail? Because I gave free electricity. Vote against the BJP if you want me to be free’.
AAP is a party built around Kejriwal. The party is driven by Kejriwal’s energy and strategies that include blueprints for governance. However, the party also places a strong emphasis on loyalty, which is why the incident involving Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal and Kejriwal's aide Bibhav Kumar worries the inner circle of party veterans because both Maliwal and Kumar have a long association with AAP.
This has taken place at a time when the party must focus all its energy on the election campaign, especially now that Kejriwal has come out on bail.
Setting the narrative
Shortly after his release from jail, Kejriwal set the political narrative when he said that voting for Prime Minister Narendra Modi amounted to voting for Home Minister Amit Shah because the BJP has set 75 years as the age for retirement from active politics. This age limit saw veterans such as L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and others retire from active politics in the Modi years since 2014. Modi turns 75 in September 2025.
This statement caught the BJP off guard, and the party’s top leadership was fielded to say there is no rule in its constitution about retirement, and Modi would continue as prime minister way beyond 75.
A second charge by Kejriwal against the BJP hit a raw nerve as it is something that is discussed and widely speculated in Uttar Pradesh. Kejriwal said that Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath would be removed in the next two months if the BJP wins the polls, because the Modi-era BJP politically finishes off all state leaders. (The BJP sidelined chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje after winning the assembly polls in December).
Adityanath is a relatively autonomous leader, and often does not do the bidding of New Delhi. Therefore, there has always been the theory that should Modi win a huge mandate, Adityanath would meet the fate of Chouhan and Raje. Of course, a weakened BJP, struggling to get a majority after June 4, would not dare disregard the UP chief minister.
AAP is the target
Kejriwal can, therefore, stir a hornet’s nest, and be a disrupter. No wonder AAP has been a special target of the BJP, especially after it won 67 of the 70 seats in the Delhi assembly in 2015, six months after Modi became prime minister and the BJP won all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.
In the 2020 assembly polls, AAP would again win Delhi by side-stepping the Hindu vs Muslim campaign that the BJP set up in the backdrop of the anti-CAA protests. After a pitched campaign, the BJP could only bring AAP down marginally to 62 seats — this too after winning the 2019 general elections and all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.
Since 2015, AAP MLAs and leaders have faced many criminal cases, most of which were dismissed in due course of time. Currently, many AAP leaders are in jail under the ambit of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), which makes it possible for the State to incarcerate without bail for long periods without it proving any charges.
Onus on AAP
Kejriwal can create a narrative and strike roots in new terrains. It is also important to note that he is one of the few Opposition leaders who believes that strategically it is important to contest the BJP’s claim that it is speaking for all Hindus. Kejriwal also operates on the BJP’s turf by using Hindu symbolism, but simultaneously stating that there is no question of being anti-minority.
In Punjab, AAP is believed to have the edge, and could win many of the state’s 13 seats. The Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) would be the main opponents even as there are reports of the BJP not being able to campaign in traditional pockets because of strong feelings against New Delhi triggered by the farmers’ protests. In Delhi, though AAP and the Congress are fighting the seven seats together, there are co-ordination problems. That said, AAP has the ground structures and its MLAs need to be motivated to work for all seven candidates. In the end, all elections come down to polling booth management and ensuring that people turn up to vote.
(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.