Is changing Haryana CM enough to counter voter fatigue?

There is no definitive proof then that changing chief ministers counters anti-incumbency. That has not prevented political commentators from describing the Haryana change as a shrewd political move.

The sudden replacement of Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) state unit chief Nayab Singh Saini has surprised many. It is often claimed that these ‘sudden’ changes are scripted well in advance by the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo to tackle voter fatigue and anti-incumbency.

The BJP had sprung similar surprises in Uttarakhand, Gujarat, and Karnataka earlier.

When the BJP changed its Chief Minister in Uttarakhand appointing Pushkar Singh Dhami in place of Tirath Singh Rawat in July 2021, the party won handsomely six months later though Dhami lost the election.

Similarly, a year before the Gujarat Assembly elections, Vijay Rupani was removed as Chief Minister and Bhupendra Patel, a first-time legislator, appointed in his place. The BJP won a seventh consecutive term with a record number of 156 out of 182 seats. Yet when in Karnataka, B S Yeddiyurappa was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai as Chief Minister in July 2021, the BJP lost the Assembly election in May 2023.

There is no definitive proof then that changing chief ministers counters anti-incumbency. But that has not prevented political commentators from describing the Haryana change as a shrewd political move that will further consolidate the anti-Jat vote in Haryana. It was the BJP’s pursuit of a non-Jat bloc that in 2014 led to the appointment of Khattar, a Punjabi-speaking Khatri as the Chief Minister.

The OBCs, constitute an estimated 40 per cent of the state’s population (2011 census) and have been wooed by both the BJP and the Congress — the state Congress president, Uday Bhan, is an OBC.

Saini is also an OBC — a mali (gardener) by caste — and the first from his community to become Chief Minister of Haryana. He is only the third non-Jat to hold the post —the first was Bhajan Lal, a Bishnoi.

If all the non-Jat communities of Haryana — including Dalits, Rajputs, Khatris, Brahmins, Yadavs, and Gujjars among others, line up behind Saini’s leadership, the Chief Minister may prove to be a lucky mascot for the BJP. However, except for the Saini community itself, there is little reason for other non-Jats to celebrate his elevation. Therefore, the talk of a non-Jat electoral consolidation may be nothing more than the BJP’s wishful narrative.

The BJP made out that its alliance partner, Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) — a Jat party — was being difficult about seat sharing for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Breaking that alliance gave the BJP freedom to both change its state leadership, and to contest all 10 Lok Sabha seats which it had won in 2019 in the state, hoping to address any traces of an anti-incumbency sentiment after two successive terms.

Political observers also argue that with the JJP being forced to go alone, the BJP will enjoy the additional advantage of a fractured Jat vote, which is currently believed to be consolidating in favour of the Congress and its prominent Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. The Jats of Haryana make up 20-25 per cent of Haryana’s population.

However, such speculations do not consider the possibility that the Jat discontent with the BJP may also rub off against Chautala. Chautala won on an anti-BJP platform, but subsequently joined the BJP-led government as Deputy Chief Minister. His new avatar as an anti-BJP Jat leader is hardly likely to be credible.

Saini’s chief ministership is in fact unlikely to influence the coming Lok Sabha elections significantly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi being the sole face of the BJP nation-wide. The credit or blame for the general election’s outcome will only be Modi’s — his persona, policies, and propaganda.

It is, therefore, more than likely that the change in Haryana is aimed at the October Assembly elections. Anti-incumbency against the outgoing Chief Minister who held the job for more than nine years is likely to be high. There were two farmers’ agitations during his tenure, where they made demands on the Centre to repeal the new farm laws (2020-2021) and more recently, a smaller agitation for implementing minimum support price (MSP) for all crops (February 2024).

In the earlier agitation, Khattar tear-gassed the agitating farmers and alleged that according his government’s ‘inputs’ that there were Khalistani separatists among them — an allegation neither he nor the Union government could prove. In the second protest, the Haryana Police once again deployed tear gas shells using drones and a young farmer was killed in police firing at the protesters.

The mild-mannered, non-confrontational Saini, might be presented as a more acceptable alternative to the more belligerent Khattar. But that is to forget that the farmers’ agitation was directed against the Union government, against the farm policies of the Modi government. Khattar was only its blunt instrument. The current movement for MSP is still directed at the Centre and not at any state government. It is to be seen whether Saini replacing Khattar will automatically assuage farmers’ anger.

It remains debatable whether such dramatic, even knee-jerk actions by the BJP and Modi, arise from political diligence, to leave no flank undefended, or whether, it reflects nervousness.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist).

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.