Covid-19 death numbers coming down but not Bengaluru’s share

While the number of Covid-19 deaths in the state has fallen dramatically, an analysis of official data shows that Bengaluru’s share of deaths has not declined. Private hospitals may be to blame, an expert said.

According to Sanjeev Mysore of the Jeevan Raksha Project, while other districts have seen a 30% decline in the number of deaths, Bengaluru Urban has seen only a 4% drop.

A DH analysis showed that the city’s share of deaths hit their highest percentage in June. Out of 382 deaths registered in the state that month, 62.3% (or 238 deaths) happened in Bengaluru. In July, 41.4% of the 2,404 deaths happened in Bengaluru Urban (translating to 997 deaths). Thereafter, in August, of the 3,268 state deaths, 24.7% (or 808) happened in Bengaluru Urban.

Death numbers started to fall since then even if the city’s share did not. In September, out of 3,018 cases, 30.1% (or 909 deaths) happened in the city. But from October, the city’s share of deaths began to rise again. That month, out of 1,947 deaths in the state, 40.1% (or 788 deaths) happened in the city.

Meantime, in the first nine days of November, 46.9% of the 145 disclosed Covid deaths in the state so far have happened in Bengaluru.

The government has claimed the falling death numbers as a victory over Covid-19. Dr K V Thrilok Chandra, Head of the Critical Care Support Unit, said two factors: increased testing and better clinical confidence have caused numbers to drop. “The number of Covid deaths in Bengaluru has been slower to come down because the city is dealing with a large chunk of cases daily,” he said.

Hospital deaths

What is the source of the slow decline in death shares? Mysore suggested a shortage of qualified staff, especially pulmonologists, at hospitals.

“If the patient has multiple comorbidities and is put on ventilators, treating this requires pulmonologists, unfortunately, Bengaluru has only around 70 of them,” he said.

Government review data presented on November 9 showed 3,995 recorded fatalities across 20 hospitals in the city from March 26 to November 9. (This clashes with the 3,961 city Covid deaths disclosed by the Department of Health up to Monday, which also includes 129 people who died at home).

The hospital with the highest Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was HBS Hospital. Out of 865 “Covid” admitted patients, 162 died, (a CFR of 18.73%).

Dr Taha Mateen, Chairman of HBS, said most of the patients were seriously ill when they came to the hospital. “We took every patient who came to us. Our records show 51 deaths in total (from 6 July to 22 October). All were on the ventilator, in the ICU,” he said, adding that the rest of the deaths had tested negative for the disease while nevertheless exhibiting symptoms and disease effects.

He clarified that a shortage of medical staff reported in June had been fixed.