JOIN USCovid admissions rise but ICUs no problem
Doctors are reporting a high number of fever cases, many of which are turning out to be Covid-19 infections.
ICUs are yet to see a rush, though, and the death rate is not alarming, they say.
Dr Pradeep Rangappa, critical care senior consultant and an expert member of the BBMP Covid-19 committee, says things are ‘dynamic and fluid’ right now.
“The rush to the ICU is not as much as it was in the first wave. This doesn’t mean that we won’t see the rush eventually. We are not too far from the time people will be scouting for ICU beds,” he says.
Hospital wards are slowly filling up, he observes. “In many hospitals, admissions have gone up from single digits to 30-40 in two weeks. Since it is the initial part of the second wave, it will take time to progress, and for us to determine if patients are getting better or deteriorating to a point when they need an ICU,” he says.
Dr Sandeep H S, consultant, transplant pulmonologist, says the virulence is almost the same but mortality is lower. “The death rate has come down from 1.5 to 1 per cent of all cases treated by me, in the second wave,” he notes.
‘Not severe’
Dr Sachin Kumar, senior consultant, pulmonology and critical care, fears the second wave could be worse than the first, based on the rising number of cases seen recently.
“This time last year, there was a strict lockdown enforced. In the past two weeks, cases have doubled, and it looks like we are headed for a spike in cases,” he says.
Factors leading to this: no lockdown and lack of social restrictions. However, an increase in numbers does not necessarily imply severity.
“The infectivity rate is higher right now — the R0 factor (number of persons getting affected by a single person) is 1.6,” Dr Sachin Kumar says, adding that only five to 10 per cent are severe enough to be in the ICU. About 85 per cent of all cases are mild or moderately symptomatic, which can be managed, he says.
The lack of isolation is affecting families. “Now, most family members in a household are infected. Also, more children are getting infected,” he says.
‘Covid fatigue’ has led to children playing outside, without masks. Many children are asymptomatic but could have infected other children. “In some places, schools are still open for examinations,” he adds.
More younger people infected
According to a BBMP Covid bulletin, among the positive cases, more younger people are getting infected. The good news is that they are recovering. “They aren’t sicker than the others. Intensity of the disease is reflected by deaths,” says Dr Pradeep Rangappa, member of the BBMP Covid-19 committee. The elderly continue to be the ones who are at most risk, he observes.
Mortality rate
The death rate isn’t alarming at the moment, say doctors. “The fatality rate is now 1 per cent,” says a critical care consultant. Earlier, in the first wave during its peak, Bengaluru’s case-fatality hit 2.69 per cent in June. “This was directly connected to non-availability of beds in ICU. It was brought down to 1.3 with good steps and collective efforts by the government,” he adds.
Are vaccines in short supply?
Amid apprehensions that vaccines are in short supply, Metrolife called up a few hospitals for a reality check.
Apollo Hospital, Seshadripuram, says it is well stocked with Covishield. For Covaxin, it says, 20 people are necessary for a vial to be opened. Anyone who wants a Covaxin shot would have to go to the hospital and register. The hospital will call back once the numbers are achieved.
S S Sparsh Hospital, RR Nagar, had no stocks on Tuesday. “Covaxin is expected on Wednesday, and Covishield next week,” said an employee.
Sagar Hospital, Tilak Nagar, has enough stocks of Covishield, but no Covaxin.
At Vikram Hospital, Millers Road, Covaxin is available and Covishield is not.
Shushrusha Hospital, Yelehanka, received fresh stocks of both Covaxin and Covishield on Tuesday.
In numbers
From March 17 to 26
Total Covid cases in Bengaluru: 11,646
20-29 years: 2,408
30-39 years: 2,547
50-59 years: 1,553
60-69 years: 1,178
70-plus years: 828